Merchandise and Food Shortages in a National Crisis

[Michigan Swamp Buck]

Sharing my notes on the potential shortages we may all be experiencing soon. These notes are based on examples from Venezuela and Argentina back in 2014 and earlier. The one article I based the prices on is a paid subscription Bloomberg page. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...tion-order

Items that become scarce (Venezuela Examples)

    Bottled Water
    Foods - Chicken
    Medicines - all esp. prescription
    Gasoline
    Detergents - Laundry soap, dish soap, etc.
    Toilet paper
    Diapers
    Car batteries

Studies have shown these short-term items go first when a crisis happens.

    Bottled Water
    Powdered Milk
    Pancake mix
    Ramen Noodles
    Popcorn
    Cereal
    Beef Jerky
    Cooking Oils
    Nuts
    Dried Fruits
    Power Bars
    Juice Powders
    Spices (salt, pepper, etc.)
    Honey
    Crackers
    Baking Essentials (flour, sugar, baking soda, baking powder)
    Coffee
    Liquor
    Hard Candies
    Baby Food, Diapers, Wipes
    Pet Food

Services
    Natural Gas
    Electricity
    Gasoline

Possible Costs
Based on current crisis in Venezuela and former crisis in Argentina
The inflated prices only apply if normal stores have the product available.

                                2014 US Avg    Inflation (X 6.3)    Blackmarket (X 187)
Reg. Milk (1 liter)        $ 0.92             $   5.80               $  172.04
Lettuce (1 head)         $ 1.06             $   6.68               $  198.22
Water (1.5 ltr bottle)   $ 1.40             $   8.82               $  261.80
1 Domestic Beer         $ 1.50             $   9.45               $  280.50
Eggs (12)                  $ 1.91              $ 12.04               $  357.17
White Rice 1kg           $ 1.96             $ 12.35               $  366.52
Potatoes (1kg)           $ 2.20             $ 13.86               $  411.40
1 Imported Beer         $ 2.33             $ 14.68               $  435.71
Loaf of White Bread    $ 2.68             $ 16.88               $  501.16
Chicken Breast 1kg     $ 5.87             $ 36.99               $1,097.69
Tomatoes (1kg)          $ 6.15             $ 38.75               $1,150.05
Apples (1kg)               $ 6.39             $ 40.26               $1,194.93
Pack of Cigarettes        $ 6.60             $ 41.58               $1,234.20
Local Cheese (1kg)      $ 7.17             $ 45.18                $1,340.79
Oranges (1kg)             $ 7.41             $ 46.69              $1,385.67
Bottle of Wine             $ 9.00             $ 56.70               $1,683.00

A thrifty food cost of $300 per adult, per month today would equal approximately $1,890 inflated cost or $56,100 in black market mark-ups.

Have Cash on Hand!

With communications cut-off (FEMA did this in New Orleans) and electric out, checks, credit and debit cards wouldn’t work for 100 miles. Banks closed because they couldn’t use their computers, phones, etc.

Cash - Enough to cover the black market mark-up, basically every penny you have. Given these Venezuelan figures, a dollar would = 16 cents, so it would be approximately $6.25 for an item valued at a dollar, or as much as $187 black market for an item valued at one dollar.

About the Black Market (Argentina Crisis)

"Once the SHTF the black/gray market will take no time to appear all around you. At first it was all about trading skills or craft products for food. Districts and towns would form their own barter markets, and created their own tickets, similar to money, that was used to trade. This didn’t last long. Those tickets were easy to make on your home computer, there was no control and eventually people went back to paper money."

"What can be found at a local markets? Mostly food and clothing. Some have more variety than others but cheese, canned food, spices, honey, eggs, fruits, vegetables, beer, wine and cured meat are generally available, same as bakery products and pasta."

"Since it is impossible to determine the true mineral percentage of gold, small shops and dealers will pay for it as regular jewelry gold. Besides gold coins, have a lot of small gold rings and other jewelry to sell or trade."

Surviving the Coming Economic Collapse (Greece crisis)

"Earlier this year pharmacies and hospitals in Greece were unable to provide life saving medicines due to a shortages caused by a freeze in the flow of credit from manufacturers to distributors to patients.  A collapse in the country’s economy has forced many Greeks to turn to black market barter economies and has left millions financially devastated, with no hope of finding an income stream for the foreseeable future."

"The credit system of the entire country is in shambles. So much so that reports are emerging about food shortages and hunger within the Greek prison system, suggesting that serious problems in the food delivery chain have begun to materialize."

" 'RAE is taking crisis initiatives throughout next week to avert the collapse of the natural gas and electricity system,' the regulator’s chief Nikos Vasilakos told Reuters."

[Michigan Swamp Buck]

I looked back at my notes due to the rising inflation of pretty much everything, but esp. because of food costs and the baby formula shortage. A huge gasoline price inflation and shortages are next. Then we can expect more shortages, more inflation and then rolling blackouts and other infrastructure problems.

Washington state gas stations run out of fuel, prep for $10 a gallon

Gas stations in Washington state are resetting their price boards to accommodate double digits in preparation for fuel prices potentially reaching $10 a gallon, according to a report.
The move comes as several gas stations in the Evergreen State ran out of fuel, the Post Millennial reported.
At the 76 gas station in Auburn, about 30 miles south of Seattle, gas pumps were reprogrammed so the display could indicate a price of at least $10 a gallon.
The displays were limited to single digits as recently as March, but the surging price of gas has led to the change.
A 76 spokesperson told the Post Millennial that the change did not necessarily mean the company was predicting gas prices would reach $10 a gallon.

NY Post

[Michigan Swamp Buck]

Here are some links I got the information from.

https://when-shtf.blogspot.com/2010/12/s...lapse.html

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/g...gas-system

[Snarl]

Awesome list!!

Might have to hoard me up some-a-dem baby foods.  Prolly the very best kind of barterable goods. Haven't bought cigarettes in a while.  Might not want to let on one has those in the wrong crowds, if you know what I mean.

Truth is ... if we're about to go into another Great Depression ... no matter what kind of stockpile you've got, it'll run out well before the depression ends.

Me and the wife can hold-out for at least three months without any real concerns (might miss fresh produce is all). I figure 90 days'll be long enough for the Stoopid to get itself over with.  Not a fan of someone taking pot-shots at me. And, as long as no one hurts my animals ... no worries.

[kdog]

Last year at this time I was able to live comfortably on my fixed income, even took several road trips visiting family and friends coast to coast. 

Today, a much different story. We have plenty of food , but having to cut out luxuries and not go anywhere.  Money is getting tight and everyone feels it.

[Tarzan the apeman.]

Last year at this time I was able to live comfortably on my fixed income, even took several road trips visiting family and friends coast to coast. 

Today, a much different story. We have plenty of food , but having to cut out luxuries and not go anywhere.  Money is getting tight and everyone feels it.

It's bullshit and it happened fast.

[kdog]

Last year at this time I was able to live comfortably on my fixed income, even took several road trips visiting family and friends coast to coast. 

Today, a much different story. We have plenty of food , but having to cut out luxuries and not go anywhere.  Money is getting tight and everyone feels it.

It's bullshit and it happened fast.

It is bullshit. I retired early because work had slowed down and not much to go around. Just watching my annuity shrink is heartbreaking. 

But, I consider myself one of the lucky ones to get a pension at 56 ( I'm now 57 1/2 ) I could still go work somewhere part time if I wanted too, but I haven't come to that point yet. Just getting by now. Just hope social security is there when I am old enough to collect it.

[beez]

I could post the Cloward-Piven meme, but everyone gets it.

What we'll see is an orchestrated plan for a Command Economy.  It'll be Command Capitalism.  (look it up)

We'll be just like China.

YAY!

[ChiefD]

@"Michigan Swamp Buck" 

Thanks for posting this. Very nice comprehensive list. So scared after reading your post. I don’t know if this country would make it if something like that happened here, like in Venezuela, Argentina, or Greece. Most people in this country don’t have the means or space to keep much on hand.

I live in a condo a little over 1,000 square feet, no basement. If I have to store anything, it goes in my garage. I do a little prep for bad weather, definitely a thing in Wisconsin. I have some of the things on the list, like ramen noodles, coffee, liquor, baking essentials, cooking oil, honey, and candy. Not so much the rest of the list. If the electricity goes out, I have a large fireplace that would heat my entire house. 

Another I thought of is what you’re talking about with needing cash and lots of it. Most of us would be shit out of luck there. Most people get their money electronically via direct deposit. We will all be sucking hind tit without any access to cash. I can’t remember the last time I used cash for anything. Most stores won’t even accept cash anymore. Crazy times.

And there are so many people in this country receiving benefits like food stamps, Medicaid, and child care subsidies. That would be gone if the SHTF very quickly, and those people would really be in dire straits. 

@"kdog" 

I hear you on the retirement income thing. I retired at 55 and I just turned 58. I have cut way back on things like going out with friends and eating out, even more so than when covid was really bad. Driving? Forget that! Just cost me $50 to fill up my tank the other day. I try to limit my driving now, because I literally cannot afford to fill my gas tank more than twice a month. 

Getting any job would just go right to the nursing home, since I’m a community spouse. My income is limited to about $2800/month. Any more than that gets paid to the nursing home. That cost has also gone up significantly. So I spend a lot of time at home staying busy with my hobbies. Maybe some day things will get better again, and I’ll be able to do a little traveling. But I’m not holding my breath.

[EndtheMadnessNow]

Bloomberg paywall bypass link


Fresh predictive programming just dropped. The normies are starting to notice. The 322 Skull & Bones is such a nice touch.



Shit birds even have it as their twit banner

By invading ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the battlefield—and on a scale even he may regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by covid-19, climate change and an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened. Together, the two countries supply 12% of traded calories. Wheat prices, up 53% since the start of the year, jumped a further 6% on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an alarming heatwave.

Mr Putin must not use food as a weapon. Shortages are not the inevitable outcome of war. World leaders should see hunger as a global problem urgently requiring a global solution.

Russia and Ukraine supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine contribute about half the cereals imported by Lebanon and Tunisia; for Libya and Egypt the figure is two-thirds. Ukraine’s food exports provide the calories to feed 400m people. The war is disrupting these supplies because Ukraine has mined its waters to deter an assault, and Russia is blockading the port of Odessa.
The Economist

Recap:
- sky high fertilizer prices
- climate instability and floods/droughts affect planting schedules
- mass burning ritual of food plants
- disruption of distribution facilities (terrorism?)
- bird flu and large scale culling of chickens/turkeys
- war impacting Europe's breadbasket
- supply chain bottlenecks
- Skyrocketing food & fuel costs
- various food & baby formula shortages
- coming this summer...the usual wildfires & water wars

All culminating into the perfect storm.

Planet Earth becomes unsustainable on Aug 29, 2022; Skynet becomes self-aware at 02:14 am Eastern Time.

The End.




Bonus high strangeness...

August 29, 2005:
- Hurricane hits Louisiana
- Kanye West drops his new album
- White Sox in first place
- Afghanistan in the news

August 29, 2021:
- Hurricane hits Louisiana
- Kanye West drops his new album
- White Sox in first place
- Afghanistan in the news

Simulation was on repeat.

[Michigan Swamp Buck]

Reply to EndtheMadnessNow:

Maybe it was the SHTF Plan website that had the numbers not Bloomberg. I'd really have to dig into my notes from so long ago to find out where those numbers come from. Also, you point out that things are much different now and on a larger scale than my study. It will be far worse than those figures I came up with.

I put this up on the other side after I posted it here. Most of the responses were just people arguing about hoarding and other stupid shit.

This is my post from over there.

Salt and spices are on that list. Salt is particularly important. Table salt for iodine and kosher or pickling salt for food preservation.

Luckly Michigan sits on a huge salt deposit and the Morton salt mine is just up to the north west of my location. It's cheap enough now to go and buy a good amount. Keep it dry and it will be good forever.

Salt intake mg per day 2,000–5,000 MG (1 to 1.5 teaspoons)

Salt intake per 3 weeks 42,000-105,000 MG ( 1.5 to 3.7 ounces)

Around 3 to 4 pounds of salt a year per person will meet your body's salt needs.

[EndtheMadnessNow]

@Michigan Swamp Buck

No worries, I was just providing an archived link to the Bloomberg if anyone wanted to read/save it all.

Speaking of Salt...a few of my Mormon neighbors at my previous house would horde tons of salt. I'm talking a garage full along with many non-perishable foods. Their garage was like a small super market. They were like doomsday preppers. I use to laugh at them. I stopped laughing several years ago.

That's the thing. The chaos crisis is NOT just America, but global which is particularly worrisome. Regardless manufactured or not, it's real and the storm is coming. Everyone will eventually be greatly impacted, imo. Status quo's will be changing and some of those same people won't be laughing & mocking others.

[Bally002]

Great post.  Not unexpected but a good insight and heads up for over here.  While we have inflation and in some cases shortages I do expect after tomorrows election, regardless of promises, similar will occur in Aust. 

Have stocked up similar to Covid times.

Winter setting in here and in my semi-retirement, 64.5 old, I cut firewood for pocket money.  As sure as fuel prices I have to put 20 to 30 percent on top of a split cube of hard wood.  Can't be generous in these times except for the older folk and pensioners.

Regards to all.

Bally

[NightskyeB4Dawn]

Thanks for posting this. Very nice comprehensive list. So scared after reading your post. I don’t know if this country would make it if something like that happened here, like in Venezuela, Argentina, or Greece. Most people in this country don’t have the means or space to keep much on hand.

I am fortunate enough to live in the country. I am close with some of my neighbors, but even those that I am not close to, still are very generous with their goods and produce. After church we have an area were most will congregate for fellowship, and on most Sundays, the area looks like a mini farmers market. Everyone that has any excess, brings it, and will share with any that need it.

I had a trunk load of baby clothes, toys, and books, that I was so happy to share with the families that would put them to good use. There is almost always eggs, and always whatever produce that is in season. I was given a huge bag of corn, fresh from the fields, that was so sweet and buttery, all you needed was to cook it, nothing needed to be added.

It was not always this way. It started with one person. Sam used to bring us Scotch Bonnet peppers. Then blue bananas. Arthur started bringing his star fruit. Then someone brought avocados, someone else brought corn, Wendy and I brought eggs, and it just sprang from that.

Now is a good time to make connections. We have already discussed how we would work together and make stone soup, as long as we could, when the SHTF. No one is going to be able to make it alone. We have drifted away from neighbors and community. Now we need strong neighborhoods and community more than ever. It really doesn't take a lot to get people together, more of us are on the same page than most people may realize.

[Michigan Swamp Buck]

On this thread over on the other side, JinMi brought up the fact that personal preps will be shared with family and friends as you will need support in other certain areas as well. I had this to say on that subject.

What you bring up is the prepper's dilemma. Most of the professional survivalists guys will tell you your chance of surviving in the wilderness alone are very low even if prepared. So many preppers know that they will need a like minded community for support, esp. when bugging in. However, the dilemma is you shouldn't broadcast your preparedness. You should keep your supplies secret as well as look and act like everyone else who hadn't prepared. Even if you think you can trust people that you are a prepper, word can still get out or you find you couldn't trust those people.

So, you'd have to have a tight prepper community that is ready to protect their own when bugging in or make like you ain't got nothing and go it alone.

[Michigan Swamp Buck]

@Michigan Swamp Buck

No worries, I was just providing an archived link to the Bloomberg if anyone wanted to read/save it all.

Speaking of Salt...a few of my Mormon neighbors at my previous house would horde tons of salt. I'm talking a garage full along with many non-perishable foods. Their garage was like a small super market. They were like doomsday preppers. I use to laugh at them. I stopped laughing several years ago.

That's the thing. The chaos crisis is NOT just America, but global which is particularly worrisome. Regardless manufactured or not, it's real and the storm is coming. Everyone will eventually be greatly impacted, imo. Status quo's will be changing and some of those same people won't be laughing & mocking others.

Very cool to provide that link, thank you.

I was in the LDS Church and got out, but two of my brothers are still members. The Mormons have a food co-op for bulk supplies, but I believe you have to volunteer at the co-op, or maybe they let members purchase at a reduced cost, I'm not certain.

You couldn't be more correct about a perfect storm, events seem to be combining and intensifying at a rapid pace that will make Venezuela and Argentina look like a cake walk in comparison.

If I can't find some recipes for house pets and zoo animals online, I'll have to improvise. They did a lot of that in the early stages in Venezuela, might as well get a jump on it now. Just break it down into three categories, pork, beef, and chicken and go from there I guess.

[Ninurta]

I'm checking into getting my salt from the salt springs or "licks" here. My ancestors got their salt that way,and if they could, I can - I just need the know-how. Critters will trample and paw a patch of dirt near a spring, and that indicates they are licking the dirt for it's salt content coming from the spring. It means the spring has "fat" water which can be boiled down to leave the salts behind.

Lots of places just over the ridge to the north have "lick" somewhere in their name, and that indicates  good place to start looking. Some places over there are so "fat" that the air smells like farts from the sulfur water, and that is "fat" water, too.

Levisa Fork of Big Sandy has so much salt in it that the water is a turquoise color, a blueish-green... but that water ain't safe to boil down for the salt due to the other chemical components (mostly PCB's) that run off from the abandoned mines into it - it has warning signs not to eat any fish caught out of it... so why bother fishing there? Instead, you have to follow the fat creeks to their source springs and look for licks there so that you get water that hasn't had a chance to be contaminated downstream.

The place I live was originally settled by two brothers who were "Long Hunters" and during their hunts they noticed an abundance of licks here, and so laid claim to the lands because of the preponderance of wildlife to be found around licks. This house used to have a well before the coal mine running underneath it cut the bottom out of the well and "sunk" it. The water from that well was so fat and sulfurish that it was nasty to drink if you weren't used to it,

The well is gone now, BUT - there is a spring popping out of the ground at the corner of the house that is pretty fat-ish, so I have high hopes of not having to travel too far - just have to dig a small reservoir to catch it in quantity, probably right in the yard, and I could be in business...

.

[beez]

Folks, I'm not a survivalist.

I've got a father-in-law living with us who has cancer and dementia.

A wife who's on constant meds and myself, on Parkinson's meds for my tremors and a shoulder that needs replaced (just found that gem out this past week).

When the SHTF, we're going to be a statistic, sadly.

But that's the way it goes.

Our sons will survive, they're prepped and prepared.

But old urban folks like us?

We're pretty much screwed.

Living in Oregon, near Portland, I'll be reporting from the front lines for as long as I'm able.

But some things just are, well, reality.

[Michigan Swamp Buck]

I'm checking into getting my salt from the salt springs or "licks" here. My ancestors got their salt that way,and if they could, I can - I just need the know-how. Critters will trample and paw a patch of dirt near a spring, and that indicates they are licking the dirt for it's salt content coming from the spring. It means the spring has "fat" water which can be boiled down to leave the salts behind.

Lots of places just over the ridge to the north have "lick" somewhere in their name, and that indicates  good place to start looking. Some places over there are so "fat" that the air smells like farts from the sulfur water, and that is "fat" water, too.

Levisa Fork of Big Sandy has so much salt in it that the water is a turquoise color, a blueish-green... but that water ain't safe to boil down for the salt due to the other chemical components (mostly PCB's) that run off from the abandoned mines into it - it has warning signs not to eat any fish caught out of it... so why bother fishing there? Instead, you have to follow the fat creeks to their source springs and look for licks there so that you get water that hasn't had a chance to be contaminated downstream.

The place I live was originally settled by two brothers who were "Long Hunters" and during their hunts they noticed an abundance of licks here, and so laid claim to the lands because of the preponderance of wildlife to be found around licks. This house used to have a well before the coal mine running underneath it cut the bottom out of the well and "sunk" it. The water from that well was so fat and sulfurish that it was nasty to drink if you weren't used to it,

The well is gone now, BUT - there is a spring popping out of the ground at the corner of the house that is pretty fat-ish, so I have high hopes of not having to travel too far - just have to dig a small reservoir to catch it in quantity, probably right in the yard, and I could be in business....

Back in the day, Mt Clemens, just north of Detroit, was famous for their sulfur baths. When I was a kid in the 70s, there was one sulfur bath left. It was out in the open, in the parking lot of the local dairy basically, it smelled like rotten eggs. They are long gone now, but those sulfur springs indicated the fault line below Mt Clemens.

There are brine wells, you can find those on maps, but most of those are waste water wells. I imagine that with the huge salt deposit under Michigan, there are probably a number of briney wells that were drilled for drinking. I don't see why halite from the mines around here would be inedible. I know the the huge Detroit salt mines are only used for road salt now, but they used that salt for everything, including seasoning salt, before they closed it to the public.

Flavor is a big factor in the chemistry of natural salt deposits. Around here it is ancient sea salt basically, so I'd imagine that it would be pollutant free compared to modern sea salt from the store. Things can leach into it from the surrounding soil though, so I don't know, but the raw halite should be able to be processed somehow to be edible I should think.

[NightskyeB4Dawn]

Folks, I'm not a survivalist.

I've got a father-in-law living with us who has cancer and dementia.

A wife who's on constant meds and myself, on Parkinson's meds for my tremors and a shoulder that needs replaced (just found that gem out this past week).

When the SHTF, we're going to be a statistic, sadly.

But that's the way it goes.

Our sons will survive, they're prepped and prepared.

But old urban folks like us?

We're pretty much screwed.

Living in Oregon, near Portland, I'll be reporting from the front lines for as long as I'm able.

But some things just are, well, reality.

I don't think any one of us are going to be the one that has the cup pass from our lips.

It has been foretold, and there is not anything we will able to do to stop what is coming. We can just stay strong in our faith. Look out for each other as much as we can, and try as hard as we can to take care of the children.

They are going to need us. So we will have to hang in there as long as we can.

You are not alone my friend. In facts our numbers are large enough that we may even surprise ourselves.