Just a few observations, an analysis of Afghanistan, from an armchair in the US:
The Taliban has "strongly condemned" the bombings, but also blamed them on the US - "they took place in the American area of responsibility, not ours".
Well no shit, Sherlock! ISIS-K ("Islamic State of Iraq and Syria - Khorasan Province") is not going to bomb the shit out of their ideological brethren when there are infidels around to be bombed! That fight will only come later, after us infidels are gone. So of course it happened in the American area, rather than the Taliban area! Now, the 800 pound gorilla in that room that the Taliban is trying to hide under a sheet is this: the bombers had to first get through the Taliban perimeter to even get to the American sector. Clearly, the Taliban allowed them through it.
I don't believe this attack was against the Americans per se, but that the American casualties were just icing on the cake for ISIS-K and the Taliban. I think, instead, that it was a planned and coordinated attack involving both ISIS-K and the Taliban, with the objective of discouraging native Afghans from leaving. If there's a real good chance you're going to get blown up at the exit point, a sizable number of people will just avoid that exit point, and not leave by that route. Creating terror is how terrorism works. Make people afraid to leave, more afraid to try to leave than they are to stay, and fewer will leave.
Power needs a population to preside over, else it is no longer power. They can't afford to allow Afghans to leave with the Americans, because as their "subjects" leave, their power leaves with them. They would have no one left to rule over. That's why all totalitarian regimes prevent the flight of their subjects.
The "K" in ISIS-K stands for Khorasan, and relates to both the area of Khorasan and "the Black Flag from Khorasan" Islamic prophecy. Both the Taliban and ISIS-K, as well as the al Quaeda elements present, are all foreign invaders to Afghanistan, would-be foreign overlords. Afghans have never cottoned to foreign rule.
Once the Americans are gone, we will see Afghanistan fall into the chaos it has always known for the past 40 years or so. Radical Fundamentalist Muslims are a contentious lot, and don't play well with any "power sharing" agreements. Each faction will demand sole power, and start fighting among themselves to solidify that sole power for their own faction. Once the common enemy of America is gone, they will start killing off one another in the bid for sole power. In Afghanistan, even without foreign invaders, that is complicated. Adding in the foreign overlords makes it much, much more complicated.
Right now, all the maps show Afghanistan as a solid mass of Taliban control, all except for Panjshir. That is a very deceptive map. Taliban controls some areas, ISIS-K others, and AQ yet others. Native Afghans still control some areas as well, and the fighting continues to attempt to subdue them, despite this or that province being painted solid red on the map. That's pretty damned tenuous as "control" goes.
Once the Americans leave, all factions will turn on one another, seeking supremacy over all. The Taliban are Pakistani foreigners, ISIS-K are Iraqi and Syrian foreigners, and AQ are Arab foreigners. They all have in common being foreigners, and that is what will temporarily unite the Afghan tribes against the foreigners, while the foreigners are disintigrating as a unified mass, because the Americans are gone that was the force that unified them against the common US enemy. Without common cause, the temporary alliances will dissolve and turn against one another.
Only then will we truly see what parts of Afghanistan the Taliban actually exert control over. I suspect it will look more like the map in early 2001, before the events of 9/11, where the entire northern third of the country, as well as more southern pockets, were under other-than-Taliban control.
Additionally, with the advent of ISIS-K, the Taliban will have other areas, probably to the west ("Khorasan" proper), that are not in their control any more.
Nangarhar province, where Jalalabad, Tora Bora, and the Khyber Pass into Pakistan all are, will likely be a contested area between native Afghans, the Taliban, and ISIS-K, as ISIS-K seeks to expand what is "Khorasan", and attempts to gain control of the Khyber, an important pass into Afghanistan, hence an important point to control for all factions involved.
The Panjshir valley will be contested between native Afghans and the Taliban, and the Taliban will not win there. No one ever has taken the Panjshir from the natives. Ever. Never, in the history of the world.
Kandahar will likely remain in Taliban control. It is where the Pakistani ISI first infiltrated the Taliban into, was their original foothold in Afghanistan, and remains strongly in their grasp.
It will take a while for all the dust to settle and to see who the actual winners are, and the areas they won. The Taliban never did take complete control of Afghanistan before, not even in 7 years of fighting.
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The Taliban has "strongly condemned" the bombings, but also blamed them on the US - "they took place in the American area of responsibility, not ours".
Well no shit, Sherlock! ISIS-K ("Islamic State of Iraq and Syria - Khorasan Province") is not going to bomb the shit out of their ideological brethren when there are infidels around to be bombed! That fight will only come later, after us infidels are gone. So of course it happened in the American area, rather than the Taliban area! Now, the 800 pound gorilla in that room that the Taliban is trying to hide under a sheet is this: the bombers had to first get through the Taliban perimeter to even get to the American sector. Clearly, the Taliban allowed them through it.
I don't believe this attack was against the Americans per se, but that the American casualties were just icing on the cake for ISIS-K and the Taliban. I think, instead, that it was a planned and coordinated attack involving both ISIS-K and the Taliban, with the objective of discouraging native Afghans from leaving. If there's a real good chance you're going to get blown up at the exit point, a sizable number of people will just avoid that exit point, and not leave by that route. Creating terror is how terrorism works. Make people afraid to leave, more afraid to try to leave than they are to stay, and fewer will leave.
Power needs a population to preside over, else it is no longer power. They can't afford to allow Afghans to leave with the Americans, because as their "subjects" leave, their power leaves with them. They would have no one left to rule over. That's why all totalitarian regimes prevent the flight of their subjects.
The "K" in ISIS-K stands for Khorasan, and relates to both the area of Khorasan and "the Black Flag from Khorasan" Islamic prophecy. Both the Taliban and ISIS-K, as well as the al Quaeda elements present, are all foreign invaders to Afghanistan, would-be foreign overlords. Afghans have never cottoned to foreign rule.
Once the Americans are gone, we will see Afghanistan fall into the chaos it has always known for the past 40 years or so. Radical Fundamentalist Muslims are a contentious lot, and don't play well with any "power sharing" agreements. Each faction will demand sole power, and start fighting among themselves to solidify that sole power for their own faction. Once the common enemy of America is gone, they will start killing off one another in the bid for sole power. In Afghanistan, even without foreign invaders, that is complicated. Adding in the foreign overlords makes it much, much more complicated.
Right now, all the maps show Afghanistan as a solid mass of Taliban control, all except for Panjshir. That is a very deceptive map. Taliban controls some areas, ISIS-K others, and AQ yet others. Native Afghans still control some areas as well, and the fighting continues to attempt to subdue them, despite this or that province being painted solid red on the map. That's pretty damned tenuous as "control" goes.
Once the Americans leave, all factions will turn on one another, seeking supremacy over all. The Taliban are Pakistani foreigners, ISIS-K are Iraqi and Syrian foreigners, and AQ are Arab foreigners. They all have in common being foreigners, and that is what will temporarily unite the Afghan tribes against the foreigners, while the foreigners are disintigrating as a unified mass, because the Americans are gone that was the force that unified them against the common US enemy. Without common cause, the temporary alliances will dissolve and turn against one another.
Only then will we truly see what parts of Afghanistan the Taliban actually exert control over. I suspect it will look more like the map in early 2001, before the events of 9/11, where the entire northern third of the country, as well as more southern pockets, were under other-than-Taliban control.
Additionally, with the advent of ISIS-K, the Taliban will have other areas, probably to the west ("Khorasan" proper), that are not in their control any more.
Nangarhar province, where Jalalabad, Tora Bora, and the Khyber Pass into Pakistan all are, will likely be a contested area between native Afghans, the Taliban, and ISIS-K, as ISIS-K seeks to expand what is "Khorasan", and attempts to gain control of the Khyber, an important pass into Afghanistan, hence an important point to control for all factions involved.
The Panjshir valley will be contested between native Afghans and the Taliban, and the Taliban will not win there. No one ever has taken the Panjshir from the natives. Ever. Never, in the history of the world.
Kandahar will likely remain in Taliban control. It is where the Pakistani ISI first infiltrated the Taliban into, was their original foothold in Afghanistan, and remains strongly in their grasp.
It will take a while for all the dust to settle and to see who the actual winners are, and the areas they won. The Taliban never did take complete control of Afghanistan before, not even in 7 years of fighting.
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Diogenes was eating bread and lentils for supper. He was seen by the philosopher Aristippus, who lived comfortably by flattering the king.
Said Aristippus, ‘If you would learn to be subservient to the king you would not have to live on lentils.’ Said Diogenes, ‘Learn to live on lentils and you will not have to be subservient to the king.’
Said Aristippus, ‘If you would learn to be subservient to the king you would not have to live on lentils.’ Said Diogenes, ‘Learn to live on lentils and you will not have to be subservient to the king.’