Da Lazy Scholar: Sea peoples and the late Bronze age collapse

[Armonica_Templar]

Drought[edit]
Using the Palmer Drought Index for 35 Greek, Turkish and Middle Eastern weather stations, it was shown that a drought of the kind that persisted from January AD 1972 would have affected all of the sites associated with the Late Bronze Age collapse.[23][24] Drought could have easily precipitated or hastened socioeconomic problems and led to wars.

More recently, it has been shown how the diversion of midwinter storms from the Atlantic to north of the Pyrenees and the Alps, bringing wetter conditions to Central Europe but drought to the Eastern Mediterranean, was associated with the Late Bronze Age collapse.[25]
Pollen in sediment cores from the Dead Sea and the Sea of Galilee show that there was a period of severe drought at the start of the collapse.[26][27][/url]

From op



[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_drought_index]Palmer Drought index

The Palmer drought index, sometimes called the Palmer drought severity index and often abbreviated PDSI, is a measurement of dryness based on recent precipitation and temperature.[1] It was developed by meteorologist Wayne Palmer, who first published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought[2] for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.

The Palmer Drought Index is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture. Supply is comparatively straightforward to calculate, but demand is more complicated as it depends on many factors, not just temperature and the amount of moisture in the soil but also hard-to-calibrate factors including evapotranspiration and recharge rates. Palmer tried to overcome these difficulties by developing an algorithm that approximated them based on the most readily available data, precipitation and temperature.

The index has proven most effective in determining long-term drought, a matter of several months, but it is not as good with conditions over a matter of weeks. It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of negative numbers; for example, negative 2 is moderate drought, negative 3 is severe drought, and negative 4 is extreme drought. Palmer's algorithm also is used to describe wet spells, using corresponding positive numbers. Palmer also developed a formula for standardizing drought calculations for each individual location based on the variability of precipitation and temperature at that location. The Palmer index can therefore be applied to any site for which sufficient precipitation and temperature data is available.

Critics have complained that the utility of the Palmer index is weakened by the arbitrary nature of Palmer's algorithms, including the technique used for standardization. The Palmer index's inability to account for snow and frozen ground also is cited as a weakness.[3]

The Palmer index is widely used operationally, with Palmer maps published weekly by the United States Government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It also has been used by climatologists to standardize global long-term drought analysis. Global Palmer data sets have been developed based on instrumental records beginning in the 19th century.[4] In addition, dendrochronology has been used to generate estimated Palmer index values for North America for the past 2000 years, allowing analysis of long term drought trends.[5] It has also been used as a means of explaining the late Bronze Age collapse.

In the US, regional Palmer maps are featured on the cable channel Weatherscan.

good idea for a toll but we have that problem
It is being misused by the climate debate

I would have to recommend construction and testing of a new algorithm

As for drought again we have numbers we can use

The Dust Bowl -us history

Has ton of economic data and crop issues all present


Not to mention we have hundreds of countries and cities out in desserts


Plus recent events in California
Its little drought it had and the measurable effects on the mrket

More then suffecient data for

Construction of  formulas

Areas to test from history


Before we even get to Late bronze age collapse

Once tested and kept out of Liberal and conservative hands we can then use on the situation in history
We know

A + b =C

We have A

and we have C

Allows us to test B