I called the first gas strike before it happened. I didn't do it by having a hotline to al Assad, and just ringing him up and asking if he had any gas attacks planned that I could predict. I did it by analyzing publicly available intelligence sources. Anyone could have predicted it, just by accessing the same and analyzing them. I don't have super powers or anything.
I did it because I got hold of the ISIS propaganda magazine Rumiyah, and knew enough about the enemy to read what it meant rather than what is specifically said - a sort of reading between the lines. There was a single page article giving instructions on how to defend against a gas attack (as I recall the specific gas mentioned was Sarin, but I don't know what was actually used offhand). It was essentially a primer on NBC, dumbed down for a specific incident rather than as a general battlefield strategy, and covered immediate reaction and followup decontamination.
Putting that together with the general islamic mindset, I knew and mentioned that ISIS itself was going to gas civilians, with a few of it's own troops interspersed among them for propaganda effect. Sure enough, the attack came, and al Assad got the blame... and one of his airbases got bombed by the US in retaliation.
And ISIS sat and laughed their asses off at the reaction by the US - their propaganda effort was so successful that they actually convinced the US to assist them against THEIR enemies! No one here bothered to listen, nor did they bother to try and figure out what the profit motive for Assad would have been... because there was none. He had nothing to gain and lots to loose by gassing civilians. It's illogical to believe he would do so any way.
Flash forward a few months, and here we have another one, a virtual copy of the first. WHY, one might ask. Is it now logical to believe Assad has anything to gain from it NOW? Is it logical to believe that he somehow figured the negatives results of the last time would prompt him to do it yet again? Nope.
Now, this time I didn't have the assistance of ISIS propaganda to be able to predict it, but I AM still able to read sign, after the event. I'm a tracker from way back, been tracking critters since I was a kid. I know that once the tracks are already laid, they are right there in the mud, the blood, and the snow, plain as the nose on your face, for anyone to read.
Who DOES have something to gain from a repeat performance? Maybe the same folks who gained the last time? That would seem to me more of a logical conclusion... but then I'm not a highly paid CIA analyst who makes his bread feeding fake analysis to the guys with their fingers on the buttons.
Item: ISIS is reported to be on the ropes at this time. They're so bad off, they can't even publish their fancy propaganda magazines any more. I bet they could use a pick-me-up right about now! Maybe, just maybe, someone in ISIS got the bright idea to trot out another gas attack, hoping for the same results as last time - gas a town, then sit back and wait for their alleged enemies to come to their assistance and bomb the crap out of a troublesome air base they've not been able to deal with on their own, maybe clear a path for 'em like that...
Item: ISIS "prophecies" insist that they will defeat the Crusaders in Dabiq, a Syrian town. How in the hell are they supposed to defeat Crusaders in Dabiq if they can't bait any Crusaders into coming to the party? You know what worked good as bait for the US Crusaders before, and got them to jump into the fray with both feet?
A gas attack.
Now we have dumbasses wanting to send more troops to Syria to "deal with Assad and the Russians". If we're stupid enough to eat that bait, we deserve the jaws of the trap. It's just Darwin in action.
Stupid is as stupid does, and if you're too dumb to live, even as a nation, you shouldn't.
.
I did it because I got hold of the ISIS propaganda magazine Rumiyah, and knew enough about the enemy to read what it meant rather than what is specifically said - a sort of reading between the lines. There was a single page article giving instructions on how to defend against a gas attack (as I recall the specific gas mentioned was Sarin, but I don't know what was actually used offhand). It was essentially a primer on NBC, dumbed down for a specific incident rather than as a general battlefield strategy, and covered immediate reaction and followup decontamination.
Putting that together with the general islamic mindset, I knew and mentioned that ISIS itself was going to gas civilians, with a few of it's own troops interspersed among them for propaganda effect. Sure enough, the attack came, and al Assad got the blame... and one of his airbases got bombed by the US in retaliation.
And ISIS sat and laughed their asses off at the reaction by the US - their propaganda effort was so successful that they actually convinced the US to assist them against THEIR enemies! No one here bothered to listen, nor did they bother to try and figure out what the profit motive for Assad would have been... because there was none. He had nothing to gain and lots to loose by gassing civilians. It's illogical to believe he would do so any way.
Flash forward a few months, and here we have another one, a virtual copy of the first. WHY, one might ask. Is it now logical to believe Assad has anything to gain from it NOW? Is it logical to believe that he somehow figured the negatives results of the last time would prompt him to do it yet again? Nope.
Now, this time I didn't have the assistance of ISIS propaganda to be able to predict it, but I AM still able to read sign, after the event. I'm a tracker from way back, been tracking critters since I was a kid. I know that once the tracks are already laid, they are right there in the mud, the blood, and the snow, plain as the nose on your face, for anyone to read.
Who DOES have something to gain from a repeat performance? Maybe the same folks who gained the last time? That would seem to me more of a logical conclusion... but then I'm not a highly paid CIA analyst who makes his bread feeding fake analysis to the guys with their fingers on the buttons.
Item: ISIS is reported to be on the ropes at this time. They're so bad off, they can't even publish their fancy propaganda magazines any more. I bet they could use a pick-me-up right about now! Maybe, just maybe, someone in ISIS got the bright idea to trot out another gas attack, hoping for the same results as last time - gas a town, then sit back and wait for their alleged enemies to come to their assistance and bomb the crap out of a troublesome air base they've not been able to deal with on their own, maybe clear a path for 'em like that...
Item: ISIS "prophecies" insist that they will defeat the Crusaders in Dabiq, a Syrian town. How in the hell are they supposed to defeat Crusaders in Dabiq if they can't bait any Crusaders into coming to the party? You know what worked good as bait for the US Crusaders before, and got them to jump into the fray with both feet?
A gas attack.
Now we have dumbasses wanting to send more troops to Syria to "deal with Assad and the Russians". If we're stupid enough to eat that bait, we deserve the jaws of the trap. It's just Darwin in action.
Stupid is as stupid does, and if you're too dumb to live, even as a nation, you shouldn't.
.
Diogenes was eating bread and lentils for supper. He was seen by the philosopher Aristippus, who lived comfortably by flattering the king.
Said Aristippus, ‘If you would learn to be subservient to the king you would not have to live on lentils.’ Said Diogenes, ‘Learn to live on lentils and you will not have to be subservient to the king.’
Said Aristippus, ‘If you would learn to be subservient to the king you would not have to live on lentils.’ Said Diogenes, ‘Learn to live on lentils and you will not have to be subservient to the king.’