Biden Deploys 3,000 Troops To NATO “Eastern Flank” Countries

[ABNARTY]

Not all of us agree on the proper course of action here, and that's ok. My opinion is that BidenHarris is taking a bite that he ain't gonna be able to chew in the Ukraine, and that is going to spell a sight more trouble than he counted on.

See, he's trying to project an image of "strength" while simultaneously weakening the US. If Putin calls his bluff, there's going to be more trouble than BidenHarris can handle or overcome. Images do not always reflect ground truth. They are just images, mirages.

BidenHarris is playing with fire while he's having fun with numbers. You cannot weaken a military and expect it to perform to spec.

Putin may end up taking all of Europe while the Emperor parades around naked trying to convince us all he has a new set of duds. The scary thing is that might not be the worst thing that could befall Europe.

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This trigger a thought. I was responding to the thread about the Canadian truckers and Trudeau's inability to lead his people. It's my argument he is in place not to lead but to carry out directives from elsewhere (*adjusts tin foil hat). When events spin out of control, he is unable to react as that is not his job. He is out of his depth. A good pawn would know how to balance both. He is not a good pawn in that sense.  

In this case, Joe and Kamala are the same thing. They were put in place to do a job and not by the American people. The events in Ukraine are running off the script and they are left with a dumb look on their faces. This is scary because soon they will be given what to say and do. It most likely not be a rational response.

[Ninurta]

@"Bally002" 

Check.  This is why the headcount comparisons are misleading.

In the 1980s, there was a lopsided aerial battle over Lebanon.  Israelis lost one aircraft and IIRC the Syrians lost something like 60.  The Israelis were better trained, but I think the read edge was better electronic warfare assets.

Same will happen to some degree if Russia and Ukraine go at it.  Russians probably have more and better EW assets than Ukraine.  That will render aircraft and missiles a lot less capable than their book specifications indicate.

Mines are another question mark.  Enough mines on the ground may delay the Russian forces long enough for some kind of international reaction to force a cease-fire.  Likewise, naval mines are still a huge PITA for all navies.

People like to focus on numbers or shiny pieces of warfighting equipment, but the decisive bits may not be so obvious.

Cheers

Yep. We have an old saying here - "its not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog". It's the same reasoning I used when, on another forum, folks used to laugh at a the notion of a guerrilla uprising in America, saying the military here would wipe the floor with it because they are better equipped, No matter your resources, you cannot whip a man who refuses to be whipped. You can only kill him... and that gets more difficult when there are fairly large numbers of him to be killed.

People will fight like demons for their own turf, and their opponents are often worse for the wear because those people are more familiar with the turf they are fighting for. It's never all about raw numbers or shiny baubles.

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[Ninurta]

Not all of us agree on the proper course of action here, and that's ok. My opinion is that BidenHarris is taking a bite that he ain't gonna be able to chew in the Ukraine, and that is going to spell a sight more trouble than he counted on.

See, he's trying to project an image of "strength" while simultaneously weakening the US. If Putin calls his bluff, there's going to be more trouble than BidenHarris can handle or overcome. Images do not always reflect ground truth. They are just images, mirages.

BidenHarris is playing with fire while he's having fun with numbers. You cannot weaken a military and expect it to perform to spec.

Putin may end up taking all of Europe while the Emperor parades around naked trying to convince us all he has a new set of duds. The scary thing is that might not be the worst thing that could befall Europe.

.

This trigger a thought. I was responding to the thread about the Canadian truckers and Trudeau's inability to lead his people. It's my argument he is in place not to lead but to carry out directives from elsewhere (*adjusts tin foil hat). When events spin out of control, he is unable to react as that is not his job. He is out of his depth. A good pawn would know how to balance both. He is not a good pawn in that sense.  

In this case, Joe and Kamala are the same thing. They were put in place to do a job and not by the American people. The events in Ukraine are running off the script and they are left with a dumb look on their faces. This is scary because soon they will be given what to say and do. It most likely not be a rational response.

Yep, I'm of the same mind. "They" - nearly all of the Western Leaders - are puppets on strings for someone else. You can see it daily with the way they all use the same slogans and catchphrases like "build back better", "fundamentally transform", "you will have nothing and like it" etc. it's like they are all getting their talking points from the same precise playbook. Whomever is writing that book are the ones REALLY in charge, and the forward-facing individuals we can see are simply their puppets, parroting what the bosses tell them to parrot.

"Build back better" in particular sounds lovely, don't it? Until you realize, that is, that for anything to be "built back", better or not, it must first be destroyed. Building a house back is not simply renovating it or putting on an addition, it is BUILDING - and you can only do that on cleared ground.

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[F2d5thCav]

Apparently, the latest twist in the plot is a Russian colonel-general (equivalent to our 4-star rank) wrote an open letter to Putin, warning him that Russia would be seen as an aggressor if war breaks out, and that it would be criminal for the two nations to wage war with each other.

I expect the general is now, or will soon be, placed under arrest.

But interesting to see a crack in the Putin-era monolith.

Cheers

[F2d5thCav]

For those interested, this is the letter written by the Russian general (who is reportedly retired for years now).

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Appeal of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation


The chairman of the "All-Russian Officers' Assembly" Colonel-General Ivashov Leonid Grigorievich wrote an Appeal to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation "Eve of War" :

 

Appeal of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly

to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation

Today humanity lives in anticipation of war. And war is the inevitable loss of life, destruction, suffering of large masses of people, the destruction of the usual way of life, the violation of the vital systems of states and peoples. A big war is a huge tragedy, someone's serious crime. It so happened that Russia was at the center of this impending catastrophe. And, perhaps, this is the first time in its history. 

Previously, Russia (USSR) waged forced (just) wars, and, as a rule, when there was no other way out, when the vital interests of the state and society were threatened.

And what today threatens the existence of Russia itself, and are there such threats? It can be argued that there is indeed a threat - the country is on the verge of completing its history. All vital areas, including demography, are steadily degrading, and the rate of population extinction is breaking world records. And degradation is systemic in nature, and in any complex system, the destruction of one of the elements can lead to the collapse of the entire system.

And this, in our opinion, is the main threat to the Russian Federation. But this is a threat of an internal nature, emanating from the model of the state, the quality of power and the state of society. And the reasons for its formation are internal: the unviability of the state model, the complete incapacity and lack of professionalism of the system of power and administration, the passivity and disorganization of society. In this state, any country does not live long.

As for external threats, they are certainly present. But, according to our expert assessment, they are not currently critical, directly threatening the existence of Russian statehood, its vital interests. On the whole, strategic stability is maintained, nuclear weapons are under reliable control, NATO forces are not building up, and they are not showing threatening activity.

Therefore, the situation that is being whipped up around Ukraine is, first of all, artificial, mercenary in nature for some internal forces, including the Russian Federation. As a result of the collapse of the USSR, in which Russia (Yeltsin) took a decisive part, Ukraine became an independent state, a member of the UN, and in accordance with Art. 51 of the UN Charter has the right to individual and collective defence.

The leadership of the Russian Federation has not yet recognized the results of the referendum on the independence of the DPR and LPR, while at the official level more than once, including during the Minsk negotiation process, emphasized the belonging of their territories and population to Ukraine.

It has also been said more than once at a high level about the desire to maintain normal relations with Kiev, without singling out special relations with the DPR and LPR.

The issue of the genocide perpetrated by Kiev in the southeastern regions was not raised either in the UN or in the OSCE. Naturally, in order for Ukraine to remain a friendly neighbor for Russia, it was necessary for it to demonstrate the attractiveness of the Russian model of the state and the system of power.

But the Russian Federation did not become one, its development model and foreign policy mechanism of international cooperation repel almost all neighbors, and not only.

The acquisition of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia and their non-recognition as Russian by the international community (and, therefore, the overwhelming number of states in the world still consider them to belong to Ukraine) convincingly shows the failure of Russian foreign policy, and the unattractiveness of domestic.

Attempts to “love” the Russian Federation and its leadership through an ultimatum and threats of the use of force are senseless and extremely dangerous.

The use of military force against Ukraine, firstly, will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state; secondly, it will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies. Thirdly, there will be thousands (tens of thousands) of dead young, healthy guys on one side and on the other, which will certainly affect the future demographic situation in our dying countries. On the battlefield, if this happens, Russian troops will face not only Ukrainian military personnel, among whom there will be many Russian guys, but also military personnel and equipment from many NATO countries, and the member states of the alliance will be obliged to declare war on Russia.

President of the Republic of Turkey R. Erdogan clearly stated which side Turkey would fight on. And it can be assumed that the two field armies and the fleet of Turkey will be ordered to "liberate" the Crimea and Sevastopol and, possibly, invade the Caucasus.  

In addition, Russia will definitely be included in the category of countries that threaten peace and international security, will be subject to the heaviest sanctions, will turn into a pariah of the world community, and will probably be deprived of the status of an independent state.

The president and the government, the Ministry of Defense cannot fail to understand such consequences, they are not so stupid.  

The question arises: what are the true goals of provoking tension on the brink of war, and the possible unleashing of large-scale hostilities? And that there will be, says the number and combat composition of the groupings of troops formed by the parties - no less than one hundred thousand servicemen from each side. Russia, exposing the eastern borders, is transferring formations to the borders of Ukraine.

In our opinion, the country's leadership, realizing that it is not capable of leading the country out of the systemic crisis, and this can lead to an uprising of the people and a change of power in the country, with the support of the oligarchy, corrupt officials, lured media and security forces, decided to activate the political line for the final destruction Russian statehood and the extermination of the country's indigenous population.  

And war is the means that will solve this problem in order to retain its anti-national power for a while and preserve the wealth stolen from the people. We cannot suggest any other explanation.      

From the President of the Russian Federation, we are officers of Russia, we demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war in which the Russian Federation will find itself alone against the united forces of the West, to create conditions for the implementation of Art. 3 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and resign.

We appeal to all retired and retired military personnel, citizens of Russia with a recommendation to be vigilant, organized, support the demands of the Council of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly, actively oppose propaganda and unleashing a war, and prevent an internal civil conflict with the use of military force.

 

Chairman of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly                                                                                                                     Colonel-General Ivashov L.G.

 

We invite you to express your opinion on this Appeal.

Chairman of the Council of the OOS, Colonel Petrov V.P. and I support this appeal and propose to support it on behalf of the Council.

[Ninurta]

For those interested, this is the letter written by the Russian general (who is reportedly retired for years now).

-------------------------

...

Sounds like he expects some borders to get rearranged, with Turkey taking Crimea and the Caucasus (bad business that, considering the rise of Islamic radicalism in Turkey, and the hideout that ideology maintains in the Caucasus), and some unspecified "someone else" ending up the new owners and operators of Russia - could be China, if they decide the time is right to backstab their Russian buddies. There's a lot of empty turf there for them to expand their population into, if they can hold it.

Just as Putin appears to long for past glory days, Erdogan dabbles with the idea of recreating the Ottoman Empire, which could be a bad business for Eastern Europe, regardless of who comes to fight them. That's where NATO would finally break, since both Turkey and several of it's Eastern European targets are NATO members.

The General is worried, it seems, that troops are being pulled from the Eastern borders (Chinese border) and leaving it unguarded too. That's iffy. Russia and China are drinking buddies now, but given China's history of trying to seize neighbors, it's possible that China might have a go at Russia's wife anyhow while Russia is passed out drunk and not looking. That could really go either way, but it wouldn't be the first time China tried to seize Russian territory as it's own. China could try to strike Russian territory while the iron is hot, OR, it could just as easily throw it's weight behind Russia in the event of hostilities.

Interesting analysis the General has there, but as with all analyses, it doesn't account for all possibilities. There are just too many mutable factors that come into play once the shooting starts. That's why they say "no plan survives beyond contact".

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[F2d5thCav]

@"Ninurta" 

I don't think the letter portends much, but it is interesting to see a crack appear in the "Russian monolith".

Cheers

[F2d5thCav]

A localized view of the tensions.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-...rever-war/

Cheers

[F2d5thCav]

https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/...-germanies

Worth reading, especially considering all of the "relentlessly advancing NATO" notions that get pushed around the 'net.

None of this is cut and dried.

Cheers

[F2d5thCav]

Since NATO is often depicted as an aggressive bugbear of sorts, for those who haven't had actual contact with the organization, these comments might be eye-opening.

First off, it is critical to understand that the "military bits" of NATO are NOT NATO.  The military forces are the armed forces of various countries and they might (or not) be subordinated to NATO command.

NATO itself does not make policy.  What happens is that all of the COUNTRIES that make up NATO decide on common approaches, from questions as mundane as what size of bolts to use on a particular piece of equipment to how the entire alliance should react to an international situation.  This, in part, is why there was no sense in disbanding NATO after the Cold War ended.  FFS, multiple countries had spent decades deciding on common approaches to support a common defense, and for all the flaws, it still worked better than everybody doing everything their own way and expecting a defense to be successful.  That was the Allies in the 1940 campaign -- no commonality, no standardization, and a complete CF when the Germans attacked.

NATO, minus the national military forces, is really just a bureaucratic organization of a permanently hired civilian staff who work with military personnel detailed from the alliance's component nations for a tour of duty at a location where NATO has staff.  Those bureaucrats implement the common approaches mentioned in the preceding paragraph.

There is some idiot on TOS comparing NATO's "advances" in eastern Europe to the territorial expansion of Nazi Germany in the 1930s.  But it doesn't work that way, because, first, NATO is not a national entity pursuing a national agenda; and second, the countries that become part of NATO both have to want that for themselves AND have to be accepted by the nations who are already a part of NATO.  This isn't exactly "Third Reich" in form or function.

So, arguments that seek to color NATO as "bad" or "good" are inherently flawed.  NATO is a tool of a group of nations; any "good" or "evil" behind NATO's actions inevitably lead back to the member nations.

If people really want to know why western Europe wanted more influence in eastern Europe ... follow the money.  Which means dig into EU policies and find out which COUNTRIES stand to benefit from those policies.  That is where the power games are coming from; they are the financial tail wagging the NATO dog.

The article from eurointelligence.com I pointed out above mentions a significant aspect driving EU policy (and, to some extent, dragging NATO along with it).  Like I mentioned before, none of this is cut and dried.

Cheers

[Kenzo]

Look's to me more now that Ruskies are going to attack Ukraine, maybe next week ?

My sympathy is for the Ukraine people, we have been in similar situations with Ruskies in the past here....