China, India, Pakistan some of the reasons for conflict

[727Sky]

The underlying reasons for some of the China, India, and Pakistan war of words and clubs.

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China-India border dispute: is Pakistan about to enter the fray?

• The military stand-off in the Himalayas has raised the prospect of a clash between three nuclear-armed powers, experts say
  
• The dispute goes beyond Kashmir’s borders. At stake are water resources on which 270 million people depend
  

Tom Hussain
Published: 8:00pm, 4 Jul, 2020
Updated: 10:46pm, 4 Jul, 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

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An Indian fighter jet flies over Leh, the joint capital of Ladakh. Photo: AFP
Experts believe the
military stand-off
between Chinese and Indian forces in the disputed Himalayan territory of
Kashmir
has made South Asia the most dangerous hotspot in a new cold war between Beijing and its
United States
-led rivals in the Indo-Pacific theatre.
By deploying troops to press an enhanced claim to the Galwan Valley in Ladakh, the northernmost Indian-administered region of Kashmir,
China
has significantly upped the probability of pre-existing disputes between India and
Pakistan
triggering further conflict in South Asia, the experts told This Week In Asia in a series of interviews.
Since
India
allegedly launched an air strike on a militant training camp in Pakistan in February last year, and unilaterally annexed the part of Kashmir it administers in August, relations between South Asia’s perennial enemies have been at their most strained since they last fought a war in 1999.
Both sides recalled their ambassadors and suspended bilateral communication last year, and last week expelled half of each other’s staff from their embassies in Islamabad and New Delhi over an
espionage
row.


Indian air force aircraft fly near disputed border with China
With China re-entering the Kashmir fray for the first time since it defeated India in a 1962 border war, experts believe it is only a matter of time before there is another conflagration – possibly even a two-front affair involving all three nuclear-armed claimants to Kashmir.


“I think a conflict is a real possibility. For China, there is no incentive to start a
war
with India over Kashmir. It has bigger issues to deal with and those about the changing relative balance of capabilities across the Line of Actual Control [LAC] might be the trigger,” said Harsh V. Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.

The LAC is the undefined 4,000km disputed border between
China and India
, stretching from Ladakh in the west to the junction with Bhutan in the east – the site of their three-month stand-off in the summer of 2017.
India-Japan naval exercises: a message for China?
30 Jun 2020



India’s disputed border with Pakistan in Kashmir, known as The Line of Control (LOC), was demarcated by the
United Nations
in 1949.
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The LOC and LAC are separated by the Karakoram Pass, immediately to the west of the Galwan Valley. On the other side of the pass lies the Siachen Glacier, an undefined point at the northernmost point of the LOC. It became notorious as the world’s highest battleground after its seizure by India in 1984 sparked 20 years of fighting with Pakistan.

Pakistan retaliated in 1999 by launching a failed attempt to gain control of the strategic Kargil heights overlooking India’s only overland supply route to Siachen.


Chinese exercise in Tibet after border clash with India
China’s seizure of territory previously held by India in Ladakh has achieved a similar objective.

“We can’t divorce the Ladakh crisis from the Kashmir dispute. So long as the LAC is tense – and it’s likely to be tense for the foreseeable future – the LOC is bound to get hotter,” said Michael Kugelman, senior South Asia associate at the Wilson Centre, a Washington-based think tank.
However, there has been no sign of any military collusion by China and Pakistan against India in Kashmir, according to Rabia Akhtar, director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research at the University of Lahore.

“In theory, India might have prepared for a two-front war, but there is no evidence to suggest that Pakistan and China are preparing for it or that interoperability exists or is planned to fight such a war with India,” said Akhtar, who is also a member of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s advisory council on foreign affairs.
Addressing a video conference last week, retired Major General Athar Abbas, a former chief military spokesman, said Pakistan had no interest in joining forces with China to fight a two-front war against India because a conflict between the three nuclear weapons states “would not remain confined to them”, and would likely escalate into a wider war involving the US and other powers.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), in its yearbook published on June 15, said China, India and Pakistan were steadily modernising their strategic arsenals in response to threats posed by their bigger rivals.

An Indian army convoy on the Srinagar-Ladakh highway. Photo: AP
It said the Himalayan neighbours were working towards achieving second-strike capability, last achieved by the US and Soviet Union during the 1960s at around the time China was conducting its first nuclear test detonations.
India’s first nuclear tests took place in 1974, prompting Pakistan to launch its programme. Helped by transfers of technology from China, Pakistan crossed the nuclear threshold in 1989, according to Washington’s evaluation, and subsequently exchanged tit-for-tat test detonations with India in 1998.
“China is in the middle of a significant modernisation of its nuclear arsenal. It is developing a so-called nuclear triad for the first time, made up of new land- and sea-based missiles and nuclear-capable aircraft,” Sipri said.
“India and Pakistan are slowly increasing the size and diversity of their nuclear forces,” it noted.
Sipri estimates that China has 320 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has 160 and India, 150.
“The reality of a volatile, nuclear-armed triad of India, Pakistan and China is nothing to sneeze at, and especially when it is embroiled in a major flashpoint like Kashmir,” the Wilson Centre’s Kugelman said.

India and Pakistan last fought a war in 1999. Click to enlarge.
ICY PATCH
The disputed Himalayan territory also houses the glaciers that feed the River Indus and its tributaries, providing water for the world’s biggest irrigation system on which 270 million people in India and Pakistan depend.
However, multiple
climate change
studies have found that most of the glaciers there are melting at an alarming rate, and could reach “peak water” flow anytime from 2050 onwards, before going into decline.
Meanwhile, population growth in India and Pakistan will increase both demand and competition for the increasingly scarce shared natural resource.
Can India afford an economic battle with China?
27 Jun 2020



“Himalayan water resources will be a key factor in the coming years as growing demand and dwindling supply will make it a potent reason [for conflict],” said the London-based analyst Harsh Pant, who is also head of the strategic studies programme at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
The World Bank-mediated 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which stipulates how India and Pakistan manage their shared water resource, was already “under growing pressure from both sides, which believe it is unfair and outdated”, Kugelman said.
In response to India building a dam on the River Jhelum, a tributary allocated to Pakistan under the IWT which acts as the LOC boundary in western Kashmir, Islamabad has reasserted its water rights with Beijing’s help.

A Pakistan army helicopter lands on the Siachen Glacier during a conflict with Indian troops in 1999. Photo: Reuters
In June, Pakistan awarded contracts for three major hydropower projects on the River Jhelum – which India calls the Kishanganga – to Chinese state-owned corporations. Another Beijing-owned firm leads the joint venture given the job in May of building Pakistan’s third major dam on the Indus on the periphery of the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region, which provides the only overland link with China.
Akhtar of the University of Lahore said India’s decision last August to annex the part of disputed Kashmir it administers could be a preamble to its withdrawal from the IWT.
“If tomorrow, India backs out, it will be detrimental for Pakistan and for that Pakistan needs to strategise today. So there is a real potential for conflict with respect to competition for resources, change of treaty status, and constructions of dams on both sides,” she said.
Driving India into US arms is a risk China is willing to take
24 Jun 2020



China is inherently involved in the India-Pakistan water dispute because the Indus emanates from
Tibet
.
China’s sudden assertion of its role as the most potent military power in Kashmir would ensure tensions in South Asia continued to escalate in years to come, the experts said.
“This is not just a short-term scenario. With India bogged down on its northern border with China, and with the India-China relationship entering an extended cold period, Pakistan will have a strong incentive to increase pressure on India’s western border by ramping up cross-border firing and perhaps even encouraging Kashmiri militants to stage attacks on Indian security forces,” Kugelman said.

Pakistani soldiers load artillery to be fired at Indian positions from the Siachen Glacier during fighting in 1999. Photo: Reuters
Likewise, Islamabad believes New Delhi has ordered the intensification of its covert war on Pakistani soil, waged by supporting militant separatists in Balochistan and Sindh provinces.
They share India’s opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the US$60 billion
Belt and Road Initiative
showcase linking
Xinjiang
to the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar via Gilgit-Baltistan.
Pakistan blamed India for a terrorist attack on Monday at the
Karachi stock exchange
, in which a Chinese consortium holds a 40 per cent stake.
Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army, which carried out a similar assault on the Chinese consulate in Karachi in November 2018.
Rather than being constrained by its stand-off with China in Ladakh, Pakistan expects India to again test its red lines by launching further cross-border attacks in response to a future major Kashmiri separatist attack on its military, as it did in February 2019.
“There is immense potential for India to find new avenues to test Pakistan’s resolve, perhaps next time in other mainland areas in Pakistan,” Akhtar said.
The die would be cast by India’s response to China’s aggression in Ladakh, the experts said.
“China’s recent actions against India might make India a more robust supporter of a strong Quad,” said Pant, referring to the US-led Quadrilateral Alliance including Australia, Japan and India, which Washington is seeking to grow into an anti-Beijing bulwark in the Indo-Pacific.
However, Akhtar believed India would be “ever more cautious about shifting towards the US and others, so as not to visibly distress the Chinese or be seen as building an anti-China alliance”.
But if India does take a momentous decision to join the new cold war as a US ally, it would make the India-Pakistan relationship “even tenser”, Kugelman said.
“And that in itself will ensure, at the least, that Pakistan will continue to produce tactical nuclear weapons,” he said. ■

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/...enter-fray

Did China miscalculate the rise of India?

• Beijing has been preoccupied with tensions with Washington, but a deadly brawl on the Himalayan border last month raised the possibility of wars on two fronts
  
• Decades of talks have failed to bridge trust deficits and misperceptions, observers say
  

Shi Jiangtao
Published: 12:00pm, 5 Jul, 2020
Updated: 12:20pm, 5 Jul, 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

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[url=https://www.scmp.com/print/news/china/diplomacy/article/3091844/did-china-miscalculate-rise-india]




BJP members burn an effigy of Xi Jinping during a protest against China in Mumbai on June 19. China’s reputation among Indians had been battered by the border dispute. Photo: EPA-EFE
While China’s attention was fixed on a
new Cold War with the United States
, tensions on its
troubled Himalayan border with India
erupted last month in the deadliest clash in over 50 years.
The fatal skirmish rubbed salt into an old wound that has refused to heal since the 1962 border war, and raised questions about China’s strategic calculations on the rise of India.
It also prompted fears about armed conflicts between the nuclear powers becoming a deadly manifestation of the Thucydides Trap.
The much-debated concept, which was coined by Harvard professor Graham Allison in reference to the possibility of military confrontations when a rising power threatens a dominant one, is usually reserved to describe the superpower showdown between China and the US.


But could it also be the case between China and India?

The two countries have shown interest in de-escalation and
agreed to disengage this week
, but there is little sign so far that heightened tensions will dissipate soon.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac...rise-india

See above link for rest of the article

[Wallfire]

Both India and Pakistan think they have the best military in the world. They dont,  there military's are at a very poor level. The worrying part is that they are both cave men with the bomb, and they will use it more easily than other countries.
China could without much bother wipe both of them out, so I would guess that China is just using India and Pakistan as a way of distracting the world from the CCP virus.
China's main move has been buying firms in Europe and the US that are going bankrupt or going cheep because of the effects of the virus. So I would look at what is going on else where not just on the border of China

[F2d5thCav]

Incredible terrain there.  Even heliborne troops will have problems because many helos can't operate at really high altitudes.

Maybe the PLA will unleash genetically modified abominable snowmen as a secret weapon

Cheers

[F2d5thCav]

Both India and Pakistan think they have the best military in the world. They dont

Especially Pakistan.  I would wager their military has more issues with corruption and religious fanaticism than the Indian forces.

Cheers

[727Sky]

Not taking into account geography on paper the all the branches of the PLA Chinese have a huge numeral advantage 


India could roll over Pakistan in a conventional war


both India and Pakistan have somewhere between 150 and 210 reported nukes. Getting them on target is another question

[F2d5thCav]

I would think that between India and China it would be a conflict of elite, special troops more than anything else.

The terrain is too difficult to logistically support large scale conventional forces (I think).

Nuke use would be totally crazy, a complete roll of the dice.

The Pakistanis might kid themselves that, this time*, they can take Kashmir.  I think the Indians would give ground on the border with China before they'd retreat out of Kashmir.

Cheers

* - military forces in Muslim countries have in the past had issues involving the confusing of actual capability versus fantasized capability.  It is one of the reasons that Israelis have normally bested them in conventional conflict.

[727Sky]

I would think that between India and China it would be a conflict of elite, special troops more than anything else.

The terrain is too difficult to logistically support large scale conventional forces (I think).

Nuke use would be totally crazy, a complete roll of the dice.

The Pakistanis might kid themselves that, this time*, they can take Kashmir.  I think the Indians would give ground on the border with China before they'd retreat out of Kashmir.

Cheers

* - military forces in Muslim countries have in the past had issues involving the confusing of actual capability versus fantasized capability.  It is one of the reasons that Israelis have normally bested them in conventional conflict.

Plus the juiced up radicals always believe they have Allah on their side and watching out for them. Maybe the 72 virgins is a calling card for the believers, but anyone who has been with a virgin should know differently. What if every time they are virgins ??!!!!!!!!!!!

[guohua]

India would lose in my opinion.
They have that Cast system in their Culture and it is very prevalent in their Military.

The average solder from a lower level Cast family is treated Like Shit and that continues up the ranks.
I told my husband that many of those Indian Officers and Noncommissioned Officers that were pushed or fell off that cliff, were pushed by their own men I think.
They are also poorly equipped.

The PLA is very disciplined and well equipped and the main thing to remember when confronting the PLA is they Cheat.
If there was Not To Be any PLA Soldiers on that ridge line then you can bet there are at least two dozen there.

[Snarl]

Maybe the 72 virgins is a calling card for the believers, but anyone who has been with a virgin should know differently. What if every time they are virgins ??!!!!!!!!!!!

[Snarl]

both India and Pakistan have somewhere between 150 and 210 reported nukes. Getting them on target is another question

China (supposedly) doesn't have many more (270 or so?).

It's probably still a 'fact' the US could wipe out China's strategic forces in under four minutes (it was right at three back in my day).  I always speculated, that if it got down to the jiggy, we'd take away any nukes India, Pakistan and (now) North Korea have in their inventories in the same stroke.  This would mean sending their navies to the bottom of the sea as well.  I'm certain we won't ask anyone nicely on that day.

Lots of people believe India can stand up to China.  I'm not in that camp.  All things considered, India needs to be a better planner for the two-front war than the US ever was.  Don't know who would come to their aid if China attacked.

[guohua]

@"727Sky" 

both India and Pakistan have somewhere between 150 and 210 reported nukes. Getting them on target is another question

China has been stealing our Technology with the help of University Professors and Politicians for decades.

[Schmoe1]

Maybe the 72 virgins is a calling card for the believers, but anyone who has been with a virgin should know differently. What if every time they are virgins ??!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL right after that knee jerk reaction in the picture, they all looked at each other and said "ok maybe not so bad."

[Bally002]

Maybe the 72 virgins is a calling card for the believers, but anyone who has been with a virgin should know differently. What if every time they are virgins ??!!!!!!!!!!!

Hang on Snarl, I thought they always believed the virgins were goats.  Isn't that what they die for.

Bally

[guohua]

Maybe the 72 virgins is a calling card for the believers, but anyone who has been with a virgin should know differently. What if every time they are virgins ??!!!!!!!!!!!

Hang on Snarl, I thought they always believed the virgins were goats.  Isn't that what they die for.

Bally

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