04-10-2022, 06:49 PM
I prefer Toynbee myself. His explanation of the growth and fall of civilisations is too complex for an impromptu reply, but the problem is basically its ability to live at peace within itself. The
stages are roughly thus;
There is a growth period.
There is a "breakdown", by which he means a grand falling out in which everybody starts fighting everybody else, perhaps for centuries.
The tendancy is towards a unification process, in which competitors are gradually beaten down. Attempts to unify the smaller states at the centre do not usually work, and instead the struggle resolves itself into a fight between two powerful states at the edge.
Eventually one delivers a "knockout blow" to the other, and the result is a "universal state" which brings about a time of apparent peace. The Roman Empire was one such. Counting Western Europe as a distinct civilisation, as he did, it's possible to see a "breakdown" in place since the Middle Ages. In which case, America and Russia are the rival powers at the edge, while the European Union is an attempt to unify at the centre (over-extending itself by moving into Orthodox territory, which has been a separate civilisation in its own right).
I think he should have counted America as another distinct civilisation, in which case we could see "breakdown" and "knockout blow" condensed into the half-dozen years of the Civil War.
stages are roughly thus;
There is a growth period.
There is a "breakdown", by which he means a grand falling out in which everybody starts fighting everybody else, perhaps for centuries.
The tendancy is towards a unification process, in which competitors are gradually beaten down. Attempts to unify the smaller states at the centre do not usually work, and instead the struggle resolves itself into a fight between two powerful states at the edge.
Eventually one delivers a "knockout blow" to the other, and the result is a "universal state" which brings about a time of apparent peace. The Roman Empire was one such. Counting Western Europe as a distinct civilisation, as he did, it's possible to see a "breakdown" in place since the Middle Ages. In which case, America and Russia are the rival powers at the edge, while the European Union is an attempt to unify at the centre (over-extending itself by moving into Orthodox territory, which has been a separate civilisation in its own right).
I think he should have counted America as another distinct civilisation, in which case we could see "breakdown" and "knockout blow" condensed into the half-dozen years of the Civil War.