Doug Casey On The Shocking 2025 “Deagel” Forecast

[Ninurta]

When they started admitting former Warsaw Pact nations into NATO, I raised an eyebrow,

I would ask, "why?"

This is the slippery slope I mentioned.  The argument here, as it is often cast in the discussion forums of the internet, always assume that NATO was the sole actor in the actions of these sovereign states.

But NATO was only one part of it.  The other part, and much more important IMO, was the decision of these sovereign states to join NATO.

Arguing against that is another version of saying, "those peoples don't have a right to self-determination".  To which I say, "of course they do."

Because they were FORMER Warsaw Pact. It's because I did then, and still do, question to validity of the continued existence of NATO in the wake of already having vanquished their foe. When the war is done, it's time for the Old Boys Club, not time to seek out a new enemy because your last one is no more. So, to me, it's not so much a question of self-determination as it is one of relevance.

This is the "1989 geopolitical trap" I brought up.  It ain't 1989 anymore.  Those countries got out from under Russia's thumb and are now conducting their own foreign and domestic policy.  Russia can certainly attempt to influence those policies ... and the Russians do that, using the natural gas supply among other measures.  But the Russians don't have a natural right to overtly control the countries of central Europe, their nationalist desires notwithstanding.

Quite right. It ISN'T 1989 any more. There is no more Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact. There is no enemy left there - why are they continuing to hold on when there is no longer a target to shoot at?

As far as US meddling in Russian/ Eastern European affairs goes when Russia is no longer any direct threat to us, I am reminded of things like the Cuban Missile Crisis. If we have a right to muck around in Eastern Europe, then Russia also had every right to emplace missiles in Cuba 90 miles off our coast. After all, Cuba was also a sovereign nation with the right of self-determination, but for some strange reason we took umbrage at the Soviets trying to pry open OUR back door. I can see why Russia might take umbrage at us trying to jimmy theirs.

Here is Russia's real problem:  like the German government, the Russian government doesn't understand (or, want to practice) the concept of peer relationships with other countries.  They are both still stuck in the "dominate or be dominated" mindset.  The peoples of central Europe have been dominated by one or both of these powers for centuries (and still are, economically), and they're tired of it.  Thus, they adopt policies, some of which exist only to thwart and spite Russian attempts at domination.  The Russian elites are too proud to admit their approach is manipulative and paternalistic, and so the tension between the various countries remains with only brief respites.

There is a lot of "but, Russia's outlook!" tripe on the internet.  Very little of it looks at the basic mistakes being made by Russia's leadership.

I grasp the Russians are sensitive about national security issues ... but every country is.  The handful of brigades that NATO has in central Europe are not capable of mounting an invasion of Russia, and the Russian leadership knows that.  One might wonder why Russia so often makes an issue of NATO's presence in central Europe ... but is so curiously silent about the deployment of the People's Liberation Army along the long common border with China.  Frankly, I think Siberia is more at risk of a Chinese takeover than western Russia is from a NATO-led invasion.

Cheers

You're right, Russia has been that way going all the way back to the Rus tribe that founded Kiev. It appears to me that even the people have resigned themselves to governmental Overlords, not just during the Soviet era, but even before that, under the Czar, and before that, and before that.... ad inifinitum. What I question is American involvement in a spat that is not ours. I'd be ok with the US just pulling out of NATO and leaving it to the Europeans to run as they see fit. The UK could do as they see fit as well, despite my belief that it would be to their benefit to extract themselves from NATO as well. That's not my decision to make, it's for the UK to make. Either way, NATO dissolved or the US just extracting itself from NATO, the net effect on the US would be the same, and I'm ok with either possibility. Russians or the Warsaw Pact ain't mine to worry about any more.

It IS somewhat concerning that BidenHarris and many on the Left are beating war drums against Russia, and driving them into the arms of the Chinese. The recent pact between the two is evidence of that, although I doubt Russia has bought into it entirely. One thing the US doesn't need is Russia and the CCP working in concert against us, reopening the Cold War, but that seems to be exactly what BidenHarris and company are determined to set up, with Hillary's overt approval. She's been trying to pick a fight with Russia ever since she got into politics. Big Red Button, anyone?

The recent expansionist tendencies within the CCP could presage a Chinese invasion into Siberia, but as long as Russia is patting China's ass, that eventuality is unlikely - The CCP is bright enough not to upset that delicate and tenuous alliance this early in the game. There is also the strong potential that Russia is just making nice with them to buy time for weapons upgrades and stockpiles, and China may be clued into that, prompting a PLA border massing, just in case. Only time will tell. After all, it hasn't been that long ago that Russia told the CCP "yeah, we know we promised these rockets to you, but we also promised some to India, and they have dibs since you are threatening their border. Your delivery of rockets will come after India is already stocked up".

In any event, I'm a strong believer that neither Russian/ Eastern European relations nor Russian/ CCP relations are any of my business until they start eyeballing the US from across the smoke-filled bar room again as a unit. In that event, things going live with US involvement in Eastern Europe might be on the table again, but until then, not so much I think. At least that would give Russia two fronts to fret over.

It just gripes me that the BidenHarris Regime is setting that whole show up, to the advantage of the CCP and the disadvantage of the US. Makes one wonder just whose side BidenHarris is on.

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