(02-06-2022, 08:28 PM)F2d5thCav Wrote: For those interested, this is the letter written by the Russian general (who is reportedly retired for years now).
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Sounds like he expects some borders to get rearranged, with Turkey taking Crimea and the Caucasus (bad business that, considering the rise of Islamic radicalism in Turkey, and the hideout that ideology maintains in the Caucasus), and some unspecified "someone else" ending up the new owners and operators of Russia - could be China, if they decide the time is right to backstab their Russian buddies. There's a lot of empty turf there for them to expand their population into, if they can hold it.
Just as Putin appears to long for past glory days, Erdogan dabbles with the idea of recreating the Ottoman Empire, which could be a bad business for Eastern Europe, regardless of who comes to fight them. That's where NATO would finally break, since both Turkey and several of it's Eastern European targets are NATO members.
The General is worried, it seems, that troops are being pulled from the Eastern borders (Chinese border) and leaving it unguarded too. That's iffy. Russia and China are drinking buddies now, but given China's history of trying to seize neighbors, it's possible that China might have a go at Russia's wife anyhow while Russia is passed out drunk and not looking. That could really go either way, but it wouldn't be the first time China tried to seize Russian territory as it's own. China could try to strike Russian territory while the iron is hot, OR, it could just as easily throw it's weight behind Russia in the event of hostilities.
Interesting analysis the General has there, but as with all analyses, it doesn't account for all possibilities. There are just too many mutable factors that come into play once the shooting starts. That's why they say "no plan survives beyond contact".
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Diogenes was eating bread and lentils for supper. He was seen by the philosopher Aristippus, who lived comfortably by flattering the king.
Said Aristippus, ‘If you would learn to be subservient to the king you would not have to live on lentils.’ Said Diogenes, ‘Learn to live on lentils and you will not have to be subservient to the king.’
Said Aristippus, ‘If you would learn to be subservient to the king you would not have to live on lentils.’ Said Diogenes, ‘Learn to live on lentils and you will not have to be subservient to the king.’