Russia, NATO, and Idiots

[Ninurta]

I don't agree with the 'stick poking' notion.  That gets back to the 'Ukraine as Russia's colony' viewpoint.

Arguably, the only people who may have 'poked a stick' was the government of Georgia a few years ago.  And they got hit hard for that.

But, going further back.

The situation that Russia is in today is 100% the doing of RUSSIANS while they ran the Soviet Union.  Their economy was run like crap and the management of non-Russian peoples led everyone who was part of the USSR to flee if they could so.  It was no accident that not only Ukraine, but Belarus as well, fled that 'marriage'.

We should bear in mind NONE of that was the doing of the USA or NATO.  Those other people wanted to govern themselves, and this happened while the West was still trying to figure out what was really happening east of the former Iron Curtain.

You're absolutely right - none of it is the doing of either the US or NATO. Nor is it our problem to "fix". Another good reason for us to mind our own business, I think.

The propaganda is rich; such as suggesting that NATO 'misled' them about other countries joining NATO.  Two key points on this.  First, those other countries were SOVERIGN POWERS.  As such, they get to choose their foreign and domestic policies without reference to Moscow.  The other point that should be brought out is the rank absurdity of the contention of the Russian government that NATO "verbally promised" them something.  I mean, GTFO.  Let's try to go to the bank and open an account (that is, a formal relationship with the bank) on the basis of verbal agreement only.  We'd get laughed out of the building.  And relations between sovereign powers?  We can bet everything we have that agreements that mean anything at all are always in writing, and -very- tightly written at that.  There are no 'verbal understandings' among powers that contended for the control of an entire continent over a span of 45 years.

You're right again - I was told nearly 50 years ago by a lawyer that "a verbal contract is not worth the paper it's written on", and that is just as true today as it was then. To be honest, I don't know what kind of "verbal agreement" Putin is fantasizing about, but in any event nations do not behave like hillbillies. You cannot expect them to stick to their word, as any words nations try to pass off are generally cover fire for some nefarious under the table dealings.

So, the only people really 'poking the bear' have been the incompetents running things in Moscow since at least the Cold War.

Make no mistake, Blinken and Company are most certainly poking the bear. They appear to be trying to negotiate "from a position of strength" that they do not actually occupy, and that can go sideways in a hell of a hurry. They appear to be trying to bullshit and bravado bluster their way through, and that will bite them in the ass like it will in any other barroom brawl.

Ukraine's military forces won't mount any invasions of Russia.  No, the opposite has already occurred and will shortly get much worse.  And the responsibility for this situation suddenly becoming a crisis is 100% on Moscow.

Exactly. The responsibility is on Russia, not us, and neither is it our responsibility to clean up Russia's messes. We ain't got no dog in that fight, as they say here.

How long has Ukraine been an independent power? 

About 30 years or so I think, on paper. In reality on the ground I don't know if they ever have been. Do actual "independent powers" usually feel a need to hide behind someone else's coat tails? Not the best way to demonstrate either independence OR power to my way of thinking.

And NOW, SUDDENLY, this is an existential crisis for Putin's government?  Horse-sh**.  Nothing but an excuse for a Russian-prompted war because the people in Moscow don't have a clue of what to do with Russia's potential.  They are nothing but a reborn Weimar Republic, but this time, armed with nuclear weapons.

DANGER, WILL ROBINSON.

Cheers

Oh, no doubt, and no argument from me. Especially about the "DANGER, WILL ROBINSON!" part. We are treading a dangerous trail, and our "big stick" is really just a wet noodle, and getting soggier by the minute. I really think that if the US wanted to throw a war and invite NATO to it, they ought not to have done the evil they have done to their military, "woking" it up and running off all the actual fighters. Before we know it, they're going to have to kit up file clerks in flak jackets and point 'em east. Maybe they can "diversity train" Russia to death.

NATO seems a bit divided on the subject as well. I hear through the grape vine that Germany, which last I checked was also in NATO, is strenuously trying to prevent Poland from selling some missiles it has to Ukraine, and using the excuse that those missiles once belonged to Germany. If that is true, it's like me selling a car to my neighbor, then coming back a few years later and telling him he can't sell his own car to whomever he wants, because it once was mine. Makes no sense. I understand they are in a precarious position re: Russian control over fuel supplies, but either all in or all out - they ought to either shit, or get off the pot.

NATO is a sore spot with me, anyhow. It was formed to counter the Warsaw Pact, and when that went down the tubes, NATO no longer had a reason to be. Instead of disbanding, however, they doubled down and started recruiting members that are nowhere near the North Atlantic, like Turkey. With allies like Turkey, NATO doesn't really need any enemies.

I'm kind of glad I'm old enough to have to sit this one out. Glad, that is, until the nukes start raining on DC. Now, in all honesty, I no longer care if DC disappears in a smoking crater tomorrow, but it's all that potential fallout that has me jittery.

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