Addendum 1
If some points covered in the following seem to be a rehash, understand that they are rehashed from a different angle to cast a different light.
Typically, I do not offer my opinion on what actually happened, when the details are as sparse as in this case… I will, though, in this case, offer the three explanations that work best with the facts we know.
1. Byars story is true… Nothing major left out… Just synchronicity showing up in the worst way for Herdman and the best way for Byars.
2. Herdman was murdered…by someone…and Byars knows ‘who’.
3. Herdman was murdered…by something…and Byars does not know ‘who/what’, or is afraid of telling what he knows of ‘who/what’.
How could Byars’ story be true?
First, to be painfully honest, we don’t actually know what Byars’ story was/is…
We know scant details that were skewed, muddied and even poetically-licensed in the media.
We know what a Sheriff’s official related, from time to time.
We know what a co-worker, speaking on behalf of Mr. Byars, said.
We know what the Arcadia Fire Department ‘said’.
What we have not heard, is Byars saying ANYTHING.
Is it possible that a well-heeled canine companion bolted under the full moon, failing to return to his human-companion when called…and continued ‘bolting’, leading Herdman & Byars a mile & a half or so down the creek, before the two men decided to go separate ways…?
Is it possible that Herdman, after three days of hiking, and a mile-and-a-half of traipsing along the Sespe creek, chose to climb the steep grade out of the creek, to gain a better vantage…to find/see Duke?
Is it possible that after such exertion, and finally making it to the cliff-ledge, 1,500’ or so above the creek-bed, that Herdman slipped or tripped…right at the edge, and plummeted to his death?
Is it possible that Byars searched all day Saturday – and sometime Sunday started his trek out of the Wilderness – got lost (disoriented) – happened upon two fishermen who were able to get him back to his vehicle – still with enough time to make it to the Ventura County Sheriff, and relate the above tale?
Is it possible that the two fishermen, after helping Byars back to his vehicle, on the same day that he started his trek-out…were able to return to an area that took he and Herdman 3 days of hiking to get to…and find the backpack full of supplies left behind for Herdman?
…And – is it possible that said fishermen would not have been aware of the story that brought Byars into their hospitable arms…before making the trip/hike to the abandoned campsite?
I suppose so. Much of it seems possible…however improbable.
‘Molly/Ecstasy’ might explain the additional vim and vigor for Herdman’s feat of stamina…but doesn’t explain Duke running off and continuing to ‘run’.
Luck might explain Byars running into fishermen while exhausted, disoriented, disheveled & dehydrated at some time on Sunday… And even more luck might explain him getting back to his vehicle before sundown (as the first deputies to start the search had to call it off due to darkness).
Luck might further explain the fishermen finding some unfathomable route back to the campsite that allowed them to find the backpack before a party of 50 +/- S&R personnel were on the ground the following morning.
All of these separate pieces might fall into the category of ‘possible’ – but how many exceptionally possible dominos have to fall in succession, before design &/or intent draws a questioning eye?
Odds are pretty good that IF Mike Herdman was high on Ecstasy & Alcohol at the time of his death (or, leading to his death), Byars may have been ‘high’ too, as one usually doesn’t party too hardy by oneself.
Did Duke run off, starting the avalanche of wrong steps, moves and decisions?
If the fishermen were a concoction… Why were they needed?
Why wasn’t the backpack & campsite found, the first day of S&R operations?
Was Byars able to convey directions to the campsite to the fishermen, but not to Search & Rescue (who had helicopters)?
Wouldn’t ‘finding the campsite & backpack’, as well as any tracks leading to and from said campsite be the first priority?
Must get bearings.
Must have a point of reference.
You don’t just send 50 people off, saying ‘look around and see what you can find’.
There must have been some instruction as to ‘where’ to start looking.
If they didn’t know where the campsite was, how could they determine where Herdman was last seen?
So … Again … How could they miss the backpack the first day, and find it, the second day?
Was it ‘missing’ the first day?
What, in the story, required ‘fishermen’…to pull things together?
More on Duke…
a) Duke didn’t run off to start the tidal wave…and Byars’ story is full of other fabrications, as well.
b) Duke ran off chasing something in a way that caused Herdman’s alarm to start ringing.
c) Duke was running away from something…
If there were noises in the forest that night…that caused Duke to go crazy – they must have been different from the forest noises of the first two nights…
We do not know that Duke took off, as is part of the story we were fed… But …if he did – what was so different, that night, that both Herdman & Byars took on a long search to find him?
Addendum 2
When approaching a ‘mystery’, whose 1st order of suspicion oozes from a scarcity of verifiable facts, asking questions of said unverifiable facts can go a long way toward eliminating possibilities along the trail, while quantifying the probabilities of those possibilities that remain.
In the case of our story – once Herdman, Byars and Duke set out on their venture, there are no verifiable facts (none that are available to We, The People) until Byars contacted the Ventura County Sheriff’s Department with his tale.
There are no alleged quotes from Byars in the public record, either.
If we took what the Sheriff’s spokespersons purportedly said (as reported in the media) there were three tales that began with Duke leaving the campsite…
1st – He wandered off, and didn’t return in a reasonable amount of time…
2nd – He took off while they were setting the camp up…
3rd – It was around 9:30 PM when he took off…and Herdman was dressed only in board shorts and a t-shirt.
There are, likewise, multiple tales of what happened next…beginning with 1) Herdman took out after Duke, and, at some point, Byars joined the search; and 2) Herdman and Byars setting out together to find Duke.
Then, there are the tales that say 1) Herdman and Byars got separated shortly after starting the search; 2) Herdman & Byars got separated when Herdman left the creek bed into some thick brush; and 3) Herdman & Byars agreed to separate to cover more territory.
And then, as noted before, the tales of Byars’ exit from the forest that begin with a mixed bag of tales regarding how long he searched for Herdman &/or Duke, and end with the miracle-working fishermen that got him to his car, presumably found the campsite and backpack before nightfall, and forgot all about it until they heard/read about the missing hiker on/in the news.
Then, of course, there is the loudly lauded and applauded efforts of some 100+ Search & Rescuers from many parts of California…choppers, horses, dogs, drones, rattlesnakes, bears and more…that must have cost the taxpayers of Ventura County a pretty dime…
Tales of spotting Duke NW of the campsite, NW of the last place Herdman was purportedly seen, and NW of Sulphur peak… And more tales from the experts saying that Duke was afraid of humans, and seemed frazzled.
Twenty miles of creek bed were searched crack & cranny, and 50 square miles surrounding said creek bed were combed by determined Search & Rescuers…
BUUUTTTT…at least one of those surrounding square miles…WAS NOT searched…and…it was not searched by strategic decision…
Which square mile?
The one square mile closest to where Herdman was purportedly last seen.
The one square mile nearest where Duke was probably seen on two consecutive days.
And now – when anyone looking at this wickedly-woven ball of yarn wants to see where the truth might lie in all of the unverifiable facts…they are met with a seal.
In the beautiful State of California, the Constitution says that “The people have the right of access to information concerning the conduct of the people’s business, and, therefore, the meetings of public bodies and the writings of public officials and agencies shall be open to public scrutiny.”
Wouldn’t a massive undertaking (operation) as was seen all across the news for more than a week be counted “conduct of the people’s business”?
Is the Sheriff’s Department a public agency, and are the Sheriff and his Deputies public officials?
Then how can this case be sealed if they have already publicly ruled Mike Herdman’s death “an accident”?
Where is the public outcry?
Does no-one care?
Questions:
Were Byars' tracks found?
Were Duke's tracks found?
If so (to both) - were they consistent with Byars accompanying Herdman to the "Last Place Seen", and Duke going the same direction?
Were the fishermen's tracks found at the campsite?
In what fashion were they found?
If found - Did they traipse all over the place...? Were they anywhere other than the campsite...?
What did the bloodhounds do at or near the Last Place Seen?
If Duke's tracks were not found going in the same direction as Herdman's...were they found elsewhere?
If so - where?
Is it possible that Herdman lost track of Duke where the rise (that the campsite was on) finally descended to the creek...?
...And, losing sight, expected that Duke was going the same direction they had gone on previous hikes through the Sespe...being, through the Devil's Gate?
But, instead...Duke went another direction...which was why the dog did not respond to his master's calls (couldn't hear them)...?
If that were the case...we are left with a 1st-order question, and given two more, for good measure...
1st – Why did Duke leave?
2nd – Where did he go?
3rd – Why did he go there?
While 1st and 3rd may actually have the same answer - we do not know, and must consider them separately until more information satisfies the question.
Assuming that Byars' story of Duke leaving camp in such a manner as to draw Herdman urgently-enough away that he failed to don footwear & other, more appropriate clothing...is true...
...And, assuming that Duke was accustomed-enough to the scent of bear, cougar, coyote &/or other predators (or game), to have acted without ado on the previous nights, and previous hikes...
...And recognizing the oddly-named geographic locales in the vicinity...such as "Sulphur Peak", "Devil's Heart Peak" and "Devil's Gateway"...
...And even further considering that more than a few aspects of this mystery carry the signature of 'high strangeness'...
Would another 'high strangeness' added to the equation be just a little too much?
What if there were something so odd & strange...just around the bend from the campsite that no-one agrees on 'what it is'... …?
What if that 'something' were magical or...other-worldly...?
What if that 'something' was the source of Duke's disappearance, Herdman's death, and makes all the other odd aspects of the story seem...mundane?
Assuming the personnel were experts as was advertised and as we might expect… …if the bloodhounds did not point & track up out of the creek-bed in the direction where Herdman’s body was found… … …what could that mean?
Would it mean that he did not climb out of the creek bottom…?
Even an agile, limber and otherwise able-bodied man would have to use all four appendages for a good bit of the ascent out of the creek bottom, as the only exits showed a climb ratio of ~1 foot up for every 1 foot forward, and it is not likely that said climb would have been as stable as a staircase.
He would probably have been grabbing hold of vegetation, rocks, scratching and scraping knuckles, knees, feet…all the way.
How could quality tracking &/or trailing bloodhounds miss such a trail and scents?
I don’t know…
What about you?
If some points covered in the following seem to be a rehash, understand that they are rehashed from a different angle to cast a different light.
Typically, I do not offer my opinion on what actually happened, when the details are as sparse as in this case… I will, though, in this case, offer the three explanations that work best with the facts we know.
1. Byars story is true… Nothing major left out… Just synchronicity showing up in the worst way for Herdman and the best way for Byars.
2. Herdman was murdered…by someone…and Byars knows ‘who’.
3. Herdman was murdered…by something…and Byars does not know ‘who/what’, or is afraid of telling what he knows of ‘who/what’.
How could Byars’ story be true?
First, to be painfully honest, we don’t actually know what Byars’ story was/is…
We know scant details that were skewed, muddied and even poetically-licensed in the media.
We know what a Sheriff’s official related, from time to time.
We know what a co-worker, speaking on behalf of Mr. Byars, said.
We know what the Arcadia Fire Department ‘said’.
What we have not heard, is Byars saying ANYTHING.
Is it possible that a well-heeled canine companion bolted under the full moon, failing to return to his human-companion when called…and continued ‘bolting’, leading Herdman & Byars a mile & a half or so down the creek, before the two men decided to go separate ways…?
Is it possible that Herdman, after three days of hiking, and a mile-and-a-half of traipsing along the Sespe creek, chose to climb the steep grade out of the creek, to gain a better vantage…to find/see Duke?
Is it possible that after such exertion, and finally making it to the cliff-ledge, 1,500’ or so above the creek-bed, that Herdman slipped or tripped…right at the edge, and plummeted to his death?
Is it possible that Byars searched all day Saturday – and sometime Sunday started his trek out of the Wilderness – got lost (disoriented) – happened upon two fishermen who were able to get him back to his vehicle – still with enough time to make it to the Ventura County Sheriff, and relate the above tale?
Is it possible that the two fishermen, after helping Byars back to his vehicle, on the same day that he started his trek-out…were able to return to an area that took he and Herdman 3 days of hiking to get to…and find the backpack full of supplies left behind for Herdman?
…And – is it possible that said fishermen would not have been aware of the story that brought Byars into their hospitable arms…before making the trip/hike to the abandoned campsite?
I suppose so. Much of it seems possible…however improbable.
‘Molly/Ecstasy’ might explain the additional vim and vigor for Herdman’s feat of stamina…but doesn’t explain Duke running off and continuing to ‘run’.
Luck might explain Byars running into fishermen while exhausted, disoriented, disheveled & dehydrated at some time on Sunday… And even more luck might explain him getting back to his vehicle before sundown (as the first deputies to start the search had to call it off due to darkness).
Luck might further explain the fishermen finding some unfathomable route back to the campsite that allowed them to find the backpack before a party of 50 +/- S&R personnel were on the ground the following morning.
All of these separate pieces might fall into the category of ‘possible’ – but how many exceptionally possible dominos have to fall in succession, before design &/or intent draws a questioning eye?
Odds are pretty good that IF Mike Herdman was high on Ecstasy & Alcohol at the time of his death (or, leading to his death), Byars may have been ‘high’ too, as one usually doesn’t party too hardy by oneself.
Quote:MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine), popularly known as ecstasy or, more recently, as Molly, is a synthetic, psychoactive drug that has similarities to both the stimulant amphetamine and the hallucinogen mescaline. It produces feelings of increased energy, euphoria, emotional warmth and empathy toward others, and distortions in sensory and time perception.(from DrugFacts.com)
Did Duke run off, starting the avalanche of wrong steps, moves and decisions?
If the fishermen were a concoction… Why were they needed?
Why wasn’t the backpack & campsite found, the first day of S&R operations?
Was Byars able to convey directions to the campsite to the fishermen, but not to Search & Rescue (who had helicopters)?
Wouldn’t ‘finding the campsite & backpack’, as well as any tracks leading to and from said campsite be the first priority?
Must get bearings.
Must have a point of reference.
You don’t just send 50 people off, saying ‘look around and see what you can find’.
There must have been some instruction as to ‘where’ to start looking.
If they didn’t know where the campsite was, how could they determine where Herdman was last seen?
So … Again … How could they miss the backpack the first day, and find it, the second day?
Was it ‘missing’ the first day?
What, in the story, required ‘fishermen’…to pull things together?
More on Duke…
a) Duke didn’t run off to start the tidal wave…and Byars’ story is full of other fabrications, as well.
b) Duke ran off chasing something in a way that caused Herdman’s alarm to start ringing.
c) Duke was running away from something…
If there were noises in the forest that night…that caused Duke to go crazy – they must have been different from the forest noises of the first two nights…
We do not know that Duke took off, as is part of the story we were fed… But …if he did – what was so different, that night, that both Herdman & Byars took on a long search to find him?
Addendum 2
When approaching a ‘mystery’, whose 1st order of suspicion oozes from a scarcity of verifiable facts, asking questions of said unverifiable facts can go a long way toward eliminating possibilities along the trail, while quantifying the probabilities of those possibilities that remain.
In the case of our story – once Herdman, Byars and Duke set out on their venture, there are no verifiable facts (none that are available to We, The People) until Byars contacted the Ventura County Sheriff’s Department with his tale.
There are no alleged quotes from Byars in the public record, either.
If we took what the Sheriff’s spokespersons purportedly said (as reported in the media) there were three tales that began with Duke leaving the campsite…
1st – He wandered off, and didn’t return in a reasonable amount of time…
2nd – He took off while they were setting the camp up…
3rd – It was around 9:30 PM when he took off…and Herdman was dressed only in board shorts and a t-shirt.
There are, likewise, multiple tales of what happened next…beginning with 1) Herdman took out after Duke, and, at some point, Byars joined the search; and 2) Herdman and Byars setting out together to find Duke.
Then, there are the tales that say 1) Herdman and Byars got separated shortly after starting the search; 2) Herdman & Byars got separated when Herdman left the creek bed into some thick brush; and 3) Herdman & Byars agreed to separate to cover more territory.
And then, as noted before, the tales of Byars’ exit from the forest that begin with a mixed bag of tales regarding how long he searched for Herdman &/or Duke, and end with the miracle-working fishermen that got him to his car, presumably found the campsite and backpack before nightfall, and forgot all about it until they heard/read about the missing hiker on/in the news.
Then, of course, there is the loudly lauded and applauded efforts of some 100+ Search & Rescuers from many parts of California…choppers, horses, dogs, drones, rattlesnakes, bears and more…that must have cost the taxpayers of Ventura County a pretty dime…
Tales of spotting Duke NW of the campsite, NW of the last place Herdman was purportedly seen, and NW of Sulphur peak… And more tales from the experts saying that Duke was afraid of humans, and seemed frazzled.
Twenty miles of creek bed were searched crack & cranny, and 50 square miles surrounding said creek bed were combed by determined Search & Rescuers…
BUUUTTTT…at least one of those surrounding square miles…WAS NOT searched…and…it was not searched by strategic decision…
Which square mile?
The one square mile closest to where Herdman was purportedly last seen.
The one square mile nearest where Duke was probably seen on two consecutive days.
And now – when anyone looking at this wickedly-woven ball of yarn wants to see where the truth might lie in all of the unverifiable facts…they are met with a seal.
In the beautiful State of California, the Constitution says that “The people have the right of access to information concerning the conduct of the people’s business, and, therefore, the meetings of public bodies and the writings of public officials and agencies shall be open to public scrutiny.”
Wouldn’t a massive undertaking (operation) as was seen all across the news for more than a week be counted “conduct of the people’s business”?
Is the Sheriff’s Department a public agency, and are the Sheriff and his Deputies public officials?
Then how can this case be sealed if they have already publicly ruled Mike Herdman’s death “an accident”?
Where is the public outcry?
Does no-one care?
Questions:
Were Byars' tracks found?
Were Duke's tracks found?
If so (to both) - were they consistent with Byars accompanying Herdman to the "Last Place Seen", and Duke going the same direction?
Were the fishermen's tracks found at the campsite?
In what fashion were they found?
If found - Did they traipse all over the place...? Were they anywhere other than the campsite...?
What did the bloodhounds do at or near the Last Place Seen?
If Duke's tracks were not found going in the same direction as Herdman's...were they found elsewhere?
If so - where?
Is it possible that Herdman lost track of Duke where the rise (that the campsite was on) finally descended to the creek...?
...And, losing sight, expected that Duke was going the same direction they had gone on previous hikes through the Sespe...being, through the Devil's Gate?
But, instead...Duke went another direction...which was why the dog did not respond to his master's calls (couldn't hear them)...?
If that were the case...we are left with a 1st-order question, and given two more, for good measure...
1st – Why did Duke leave?
2nd – Where did he go?
3rd – Why did he go there?
While 1st and 3rd may actually have the same answer - we do not know, and must consider them separately until more information satisfies the question.
Assuming that Byars' story of Duke leaving camp in such a manner as to draw Herdman urgently-enough away that he failed to don footwear & other, more appropriate clothing...is true...
...And, assuming that Duke was accustomed-enough to the scent of bear, cougar, coyote &/or other predators (or game), to have acted without ado on the previous nights, and previous hikes...
...And recognizing the oddly-named geographic locales in the vicinity...such as "Sulphur Peak", "Devil's Heart Peak" and "Devil's Gateway"...
...And even further considering that more than a few aspects of this mystery carry the signature of 'high strangeness'...
Would another 'high strangeness' added to the equation be just a little too much?
What if there were something so odd & strange...just around the bend from the campsite that no-one agrees on 'what it is'... …?
What if that 'something' were magical or...other-worldly...?
What if that 'something' was the source of Duke's disappearance, Herdman's death, and makes all the other odd aspects of the story seem...mundane?
Assuming the personnel were experts as was advertised and as we might expect… …if the bloodhounds did not point & track up out of the creek-bed in the direction where Herdman’s body was found… … …what could that mean?
Would it mean that he did not climb out of the creek bottom…?
Even an agile, limber and otherwise able-bodied man would have to use all four appendages for a good bit of the ascent out of the creek bottom, as the only exits showed a climb ratio of ~1 foot up for every 1 foot forward, and it is not likely that said climb would have been as stable as a staircase.
He would probably have been grabbing hold of vegetation, rocks, scratching and scraping knuckles, knees, feet…all the way.
How could quality tracking &/or trailing bloodhounds miss such a trail and scents?
I don’t know…
What about you?