Quote:To pay for expensive technologies, many strategists favor a reduction in force size. In light of the strategic focus on China, the different service branches are adopting their own approaches. Since the Navy and Air Force are likely to play the most important roles in a conflict with China, the Army is likely to shrink. The Army, however, would play a critical role in a conflict with Russia. At the same time, it is trying to develop capabilities that will also be useful in the Pacific theater, such as long-range anti-ship missiles. Even when large numbers of ground combat troops are not needed, the Army has historically provided large numbers of troops to support other services.

The Air Force will likely cut its force to finance modernization efforts. The Marine Corps is currently restructuring its forces (Force Design 2030) for the Pacific theater. It plans to shrink to pre-Iraq and pre-Afghanistan levels to pay for long-range precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles.  The Navy, for some time, has been perceived as an outlier because it plans to grow its force structure and increase its fleet considerably, though its earlier goal of reaching a 355-ship fleet collapsed due to staggering costs. Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may delay the long overdue pivot to Asia, the future focus on China will require modernization and investment in high-end technologies rather than large numbers of troops.

Analysts agree the biggest challenge for the armed forces in an age of near-peer competition is the quality rather than the quantity of service members.
Recruiting and retaining personnel with high-end technical and cyber skills, (since the cyber domain is projected to increase rapidly) must be a priority. The 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights the necessity to modernize professional military education (PME), implement improved talent management, and better utilize civilian workforce expertise.
....
While acknowledging that manpower supply is a serious concern, this article has argued that the notion of a “manpower crisis” needs to be nuanced. Although the relatively small recruitment pool of qualified youth remains a serious challenge for the armed forces, the underlying issues of obesity, previous criminal records, and lack of education may, to various degrees, be worked around. Nor do all of these issues trend in the wrong direction, particularly when it comes to the educational attainment of young Americans.

The Department of Defense has historically found ways to overcome manpower shortfalls. First, the Armed forces have used more contractors at home and abroad. Contractors are less expensive and easier to recruit and terminate. The US military has adopted a practice employed by private companies for a long time—outsourcing certain activities that do not need a highly skilled workforce. Outsourcing is problematic since the practice makes the military dependent on a private sector driven by different incentives than the public sector. Second, reservists have been used more efficiently—and could be used even more efficiently if appropriately managed.

Third, the number of Department of Defense civilians has increased.Over time, the military has shifted active-duty personnel functions to other
workforces to overcome recruitment and retention problems because active-duty service members are expensive. Although much of the discussion focuses on recruitment, some analysts think retention is a more significant concern since it is easier for the military to mask the numbers. Some believe the most talented people tend to leave and continue their careers elsewhere.

(10-14-2022, 02:27 AM)EndtheMadnessNow Wrote: The US military, at least going by this paper below is not worried about the current "recruiting crisis." They view it as a minor hurdle that can be navigated fairly easily and at the moment will simply rely on more PMC contractors than usual.

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters Volume 52, Number 3 8-25-2022

Meeting the US Military’s Manpower Challenges (15 pg PDF)

Some excerpts:

Quote:To pay for expensive technologies, many strategists favor a reduction in force size. In light of the strategic focus on China, the different service branches are adopting their own approaches. Since the Navy and Air Force are likely to play the most important roles in a conflict with China, the Army is likely to shrink. The Army, however, would play a critical role in a conflict with Russia. At the same time, it is trying to develop capabilities that will also be useful in the Pacific theater, such as long-range anti-ship missiles. Even when large numbers of ground combat troops are not needed, the Army has historically provided large numbers of troops to support other services.

The Air Force will likely cut its force to finance modernization efforts. The Marine Corps is currently restructuring its forces (Force Design 2030) for the Pacific theater. It plans to shrink to pre-Iraq and pre-Afghanistan levels to pay for long-range precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles.  The Navy, for some time, has been perceived as an outlier because it plans to grow its force structure and increase its fleet considerably, though its earlier goal of reaching a 355-ship fleet collapsed due to staggering costs. Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may delay the long overdue pivot to Asia, the future focus on China will require modernization and investment in high-end technologies rather than large numbers of troops.

Analysts agree the biggest challenge for the armed forces in an age of near-peer competition is the quality rather than the quantity of service members.
Recruiting and retaining personnel with high-end technical and cyber skills, (since the cyber domain is projected to increase rapidly) must be a priority. The 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights the necessity to modernize professional military education (PME), implement improved talent management, and better utilize civilian workforce expertise.
....
While acknowledging that manpower supply is a serious concern, this article has argued that the notion of a “manpower crisis” needs to be nuanced. Although the relatively small recruitment pool of qualified youth remains a serious challenge for the armed forces, the underlying issues of obesity, previous criminal records, and lack of education may, to various degrees, be worked around. Nor do all of these issues trend in the wrong direction, particularly when it comes to the educational attainment of young Americans.

The Department of Defense has historically found ways to overcome manpower shortfalls. First, the Armed forces have used more contractors at home and abroad. Contractors are less expensive and easier to recruit and terminate. The US military has adopted a practice employed by private companies for a long time—outsourcing certain activities that do not need a highly skilled workforce. Outsourcing is problematic since the practice makes the military dependent on a private sector driven by different incentives than the public sector. Second, reservists have been used more efficiently—and could be used even more efficiently if appropriately managed.

Third, the number of Department of Defense civilians has increased.Over time, the military has shifted active-duty personnel functions to other
workforces to overcome recruitment and retention problems because active-duty service members are expensive. Although much of the discussion focuses on recruitment, some analysts think retention is a more significant concern since it is easier for the military to mask the numbers. Some believe the most talented people tend to leave and continue their careers elsewhere.

I think part of recognizing the post-vietnam NatSec state that we've been living under for the past 50 years is understanding that the draft will literally never be reactivated, ever. Pivoting to foreign militias, drones of every shape & kind under the sun, and now entire proxy countries has been a long march towards ensuring there is always a wall separating the public outcry against military intervention vs the actual morale and efficiency of that intervention.

During the Vietnam era there was no wall. With everyone since, there has been. Even while Rumsfeld was deflecting on national TV when he was asked if the US would use nukes post-9/11, the one thing the Bush Admin was firm on was that the draft would never be activated.

Perhaps the goal is to put the US public as far away from the actual warfighting as possible. Utilizing drones even US soldiers barely interact with the targets, they just use an X-box controller in an air-conditioned RV in the Nevada desert to obliterate whomever.

Quote:3.6.2015 10:52
[*]The Union of Conscientious Objectors says that it is becoming much more common to resign from the army. By the end of May some 485 reservists had resigned from the army, according to a statement from the union. In 2014 fewer than 300 resigned over the whole year.

(10-14-2022, 05:07 AM)Finspiracy Wrote: Old stuff here:

Quote:3.6.2015 10:52
[*]The Union of Conscientious Objectors says that it is becoming much more common to resign from the army. By the end of May some 485 reservists had resigned from the army, according to a statement from the union. In 2014 fewer than 300 resigned over the whole year.

[*]I resigned from the reserve troops of Finnish defense forces 2017 or so. As mandated by law, i was sent to civil service center for 5 days. Loved it there. Great lectures, great food, plenty of like-minded people. And some time away from this dusty apartment. I wish i could go again, but obviously, i can't.


Now, 7 years later (after that news article clip) the resignations are at an all time high. Records being made. You all know why...

[*]( Zero idea where the
[*]things come from, or how to remove them. Deal with it)

[*]The fuckers multiply. Gotta end my post here or it will be nothing but strange * stuff

(10-14-2022, 02:37 PM)Snarl Wrote: [*]
Why join if it's not even worth it?

(10-14-2022, 02:52 PM)Finspiracy Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 02:37 PM)Snarl Wrote: [*]
Why join if it's not even worth it?

[*]I dunno. Old values?

(10-14-2022, 03:48 PM)Snarl Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 02:52 PM)Finspiracy Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 02:37 PM)Snarl Wrote: [*]
Why join if it's not even worth it?

[*]I dunno. Old values?

They're gonna have to pay more.  I know I'd take a job at McDonald's for starting wages before I would even half-way consider signing-up for another career in uniform.

The medical benefits were worthwhile for the past 20 years, but the co-pays and difficulty getting in to see a doc are eroding that feeling with a quickness.

I don't even know what benefits would incentivize interest to be honest. I can only tell you from what I do know, and my present and past affiliation, no recommendation is going to pass my lips.

(10-14-2022, 04:12 PM)NightskyeB4Dawn Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 03:48 PM)Snarl Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 02:52 PM)Finspiracy Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 02:37 PM)Snarl Wrote: [*]
Why join if it's not even worth it?

[*]I dunno. Old values?

They're gonna have to pay more.  I know I'd take a job at McDonald's for starting wages before I would even half-way consider signing-up for another career in uniform.

The medical benefits were worthwhile for the past 20 years, but the co-pays and difficulty getting in to see a doc are eroding that feeling with a quickness.

I don't even know what benefits would incentivize interest to be honest. I can only tell you from what I do know, and my present and past affiliation, no recommendation is going to pass my lips.

I used to sing the praises of the VA. Now I try to avoid the place like the plague. Once all the good doctors left, they were replaced with a bunch mentally impaired fools that could not get a job anyplace else.

Never say never, but they are going to have to pull some serious magic out of their hat to get me to ever volunteer to serve again.

(10-14-2022, 07:12 PM)Finspiracy Wrote: But you have a population of 330 million.

Sure you can find enough fit and qualified youngsters to have a strong and powerful army?

It The United States falls, the whole west falls, it is simple really.

Don't fall!

(10-14-2022, 08:26 PM)NightskyeB4Dawn Wrote: Part of the problem is level of maturity. When I was 8 years old, I washed and dressed myself, cleaned up my brother and dressed him. I cooked my breakfast. Fed my brother. Walked him to the lady's house that watched him, then went to school. 

After school I picked up my brother. Made us a snack. Washed, dried, and put away the dishes. Then did my homework. All before my Mom got home from work.

18 year olds can't do that today.

Too many of our youths can't tie their own shoes. And they can't put down their phones.

(10-14-2022, 08:35 PM)Finspiracy Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 08:26 PM)NightskyeB4Dawn Wrote: Part of the problem is level of maturity. When I was 8 years old, I washed and dressed myself, cleaned up my brother and dressed him. I cooked my breakfast. Fed my brother. Walked him to the lady's house that watched him, then went to school. 

After school I picked up my brother. Made us a snack. Washed, dried, and put away the dishes. Then did my homework. All before my Mom got home from work.

18 year olds can't do that today.

Too many of our youths can't tie their own shoes. And they can't put down their phones.

That is really impressive from an 8 year old!

And yes, the phone thing is really, really bad. Young people seem to really be unable to put down those phones for more than 30 seconds at a time.

(10-14-2022, 04:39 PM)Finspiracy Wrote: So do you Rogues think that the military of The USA is weaker today than what it used to be.? Or stronger, but maybe not even close to the strength it could be, in optimal conditions (No wokes, No recruiting problems, great VA?)

I would really like a strong American military. Our countries could be allies soon. I hope that happens, but it is not my call. It is the call of a Turkish dictator.

(10-14-2022, 09:50 PM)EndtheMadnessNow Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 04:39 PM)Finspiracy Wrote: So do you Rogues think that the military of The USA is weaker today than what it used to be.? Or stronger, but maybe not even close to the strength it could be, in optimal conditions (No wokes, No recruiting problems, great VA?)

I would really like a strong American military. Our countries could be allies soon. I hope that happens, but it is not my call. It is the call of a Turkish dictator.

I exited the Navy shortly after Clinton granted women on combat ships. I was about to re-enlist, but thank my lucky stars for getting out. A few of my buddies had stayed in and within 2 years were slaughtered due to saying the wrong words. Post 9/11 really did a number on the younger generation and their kids into a weakened, childish snowflake society high on emotional fear, confusion, hopelessness & social media rage. AND now woke roaring 20's appears to be devastating. I know there is youngsters that see right through the woke crowd, but they're overwhelmed by them. This culture war will eventually pass, but it's going to be awhile.

Can hardly wait toward the end of this decade when I think the pendulum will swing the other way. We're either going to start seeing alot of secret highly advanced formidable weaponry being rolled out, or a whole lotta marketing fluff that's been sold to the Pentagon generals & congress that doesn't work very well in the real world.

"You would think intelligence would count for something in the intelligence business. But, do you want to know what it really is? What really sets the agenda? Military-industrial happiness.

You keep the coffers open in Congress, you keep the money flowing to the contractors."
- Hank Forrester, Snowden movie

(10-14-2022, 11:19 PM)NightskyeB4Dawn Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 09:50 PM)EndtheMadnessNow Wrote:

(10-14-2022, 04:39 PM)Finspiracy Wrote: So do you Rogues think that the military of The USA is weaker today than what it used to be.? Or stronger, but maybe not even close to the strength it could be, in optimal conditions (No wokes, No recruiting problems, great VA?)

I would really like a strong American military. Our countries could be allies soon. I hope that happens, but it is not my call. It is the call of a Turkish dictator.

I exited the Navy shortly after Clinton granted women on combat ships. I was about to re-enlist, but thank my lucky stars for getting out. A few of my buddies had stayed in and within 2 years were slaughtered due to saying the wrong words. Post 9/11 really did a number on the younger generation and their kids into a weakened, childish snowflake society high on emotional fear, confusion, hopelessness & social media rage. AND now woke roaring 20's appears to be devastating. I know there is youngsters that see right through the woke crowd, but they're overwhelmed by them. This culture war will eventually pass, but it's going to be awhile.

Can hardly wait toward the end of this decade when I think the pendulum will swing the other way. We're either going to start seeing alot of secret highly advanced formidable weaponry being rolled out, or a whole lotta marketing fluff that's been sold to the Pentagon generals & congress that doesn't work very well in the real world.

"You would think intelligence would count for something in the intelligence business. But, do you want to know what it really is? What really sets the agenda? Military-industrial happiness.

You keep the coffers open in Congress, you keep the money flowing to the contractors."
- Hank Forrester, Snowden movie

At work at the hospital. On break, will make it breif.

I had responsibilities as a child. The family worked because we worked together.

Most children today have no responsibilities. Not even to themselves. Parents thought they were making life easy for their children. Life is not easy. So they are not ready or prepared for the hell fire that they will have to swim through.

(10-14-2022, 04:39 PM)Finspiracy Wrote: So do you Rogues think that the military of The USA is weaker today than what it used to be.? Or stronger, but maybe not even close to the strength it could be, in optimal conditions (No wokes, No recruiting problems, great VA?)

I would really like a strong American military. Our countries could be allies soon. I hope that happens, but it is not my call. It is the call of a Turkish dictator.

(10-14-2022, 07:04 PM)ABNARTY Wrote: The cost of contractors to perform the roles of military members is fine as long as the tax payers are willing to foot that bill. Pound for pound, a Private in the Army or any branch is your most economical way to defend the nation. A contractor on the other hand is about the most expensive way to go. The tax payer pays twice. They pay Uncle Sam to train them and them pay a contractor 5-10X to hire them after they get out. 

But the bill payers in Congress are not concerned about that. They benefit financially from the MIC playing a bigger role.