Quote:A political scientist who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s presidential win in 2016 eight months before it happened, has a new prediction for the president in the upcoming election. And Democrats are not going to like it.

Recent polls have Democratic presumptive presidential candidate Joe Biden ahead of the president.

However, Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is predicting President Trump has a “91 percent” chance of a win in November.

According to Mediaite on Wednesday, July 8, the professor correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996 with his Primary Model.

(07-09-2020, 04:13 PM)beez Wrote: I still think it's 50/50

I'll probably vote for him again (Trump) but I live in Oregon.

So it doesn't matter. 

Quote:Trump legal adviser: Ballot harvesting unconstitutional if it creates 'wide opportunity for fraud'

'We can stand in line and social distance and be safe at a grocery store or hardware store, we can stand in line to vote,' said Trump 2020 senior legal adviser Jenna Ellis.

Allowing third parties to collect election ballots, a term sometimes called "ballot harvesting," is unconstitutional if it creates "wide opportunity for fraud," Trump campaign senior legal adviser Jenna Ellis says.

"I think that ballot harvesting is definitely opening up a ripe opportunity for fraud," Ellis told Just the News in an interview, while acknowledging there is no language in the Constitution specifying "exactly how a vote has to be held." 

Citing Supreme Court rulings that talk about the importance of election security, Ellis said: "We have to make sure that we are securing the sanctity of that ballot, and part of the right to vote is to make sure that my vote, your vote is fairly and accurately counted."

"When you undermine election security," she said, by allowing procedures "that provide such a wide opportunity for fraud, then yes, that can be unconstitutional on that basis."

Ellis is part of a legal team examining possible breakdowns in what they call the "chain of custody," e.g. the interposition of additional barriers that separate a voter from directly delivering his or her own ballot to be counted. Each additional degree of separation from a voter's personal custody of a ballot adds risk and opportunities for fraud, Ellis explained.

"If a ballot is mailed to an individual through the mail, and then they fill out their ballot, and then they give it to a third party to then go and return, and even if that third party happens to be a mail carrier, there are still documented instances where mail carriers have altered or destroyed ballots," Ellis said. "So that just breaks down the chain of custody, rather than going and voting in person. You know, we can stand in line and social distance and be safe at a grocery store or hardware store — we can stand in line to vote."

(07-09-2020, 03:33 PM)F2d5thCav Wrote:

Quote:A political scientist who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s presidential win in 2016 eight months before it happened, has a new prediction for the president in the upcoming election. And Democrats are not going to like it.

Recent polls have Democratic presumptive presidential candidate Joe Biden ahead of the president.

However, Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is predicting President Trump has a “91 percent” chance of a win in November.

According to Mediaite on Wednesday, July 8, the professor correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996 with his Primary Model.

https://thebl.com/politics/political-science-professor-says-trump-has-a-91-percent-chance-for-re-election-in-2020.html

Looks like JoJo Biden has his work cut out for him.

Cheers