World population in 2100 could be 2 billion below UN projections

[727Sky]

The latest population projection (guess) says Africa will increase while others decline. I am not at all convinced Africa will meet the projections simply because of tribal, religious, warfare, and food availability.

Of course there is always war and or a major killer pandemic that can change everything for everyone.    

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/195170...rojections

By 2100, more than 20 countries -- including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland -- will see their populations decline by at least half.
PARIS: Earth will be home to 8.8 billion souls in 2100, 2 billion fewer than current UN projections, according to a major study published Wednesday that foresees new global power alignments shaped by declining fertility rates and greying populations.
By century's end, 183 of 195 countries -- barring an influx of immigrants -- will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in The Lancet.
More than 20 countries -- including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland -- will see their numbers diminish by at least half.
China's will fall nearly that much, from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years.
Sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, will triple in size to some3 billion people, with Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India's 1.1 billion.
"These forecasts suggest good news for the environment, with less stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions, as well as significant economic opportunity for parts of sub-Saharan Africa," lead author Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, told AFP.
"However, most countries outside of Africa will see shrinking workforces and inverting population pyramids, which will have profound negative consequences for the economy."
For high-income countries in this category, the best solutions for sustaining population levels and economic growth will be flexible immigration policies and social support for families who want children, the study concluded.
"However, in the face of declining population there is a very real danger that some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences," Murray cautioned.
866 million people over 80
"It is imperative that women's freedom and rights are at the top of every government's development agenda."
Social services and healthcare systems will need to be overhauled to accommodate much older populations.
As fertility falls and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under five is forecast to decline by more than 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, the study found.
At the other end of the spectrum, 2.37 billion people -- more than a quarter of the global population -- will be over 65 years old by then.
Those over 80 will balloon from about 140 million today to 866 million.
Sharp declines in the number and proportion of the working-age population will also pose huge challenges in many countries.
"Societies will struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers," noted Stein Emil Vollset, a professor at the IHME.
The number of people of working age in China, for example, will plummet from about 950 million today to just over 350 million by the end of the century -- a 62 percent drop.
The decline in India is projected to be less steep, from 762 to 578 million.
In Nigeria, by contrast, the active labour force will expand from 86 million today to more than 450 million in 2100.
These tectonic shifts will also reshuffle the pecking order in terms of economic clout, the researchers forecast.
A new multipolar world
By 2050, China's gross domestic product will overtake that of the United States, but fall back into second place by 2100, they predict.
India's GDP will rise to take the number three spot, while Japan, Germany, France and the UK will stay among the world's 10 largest economies.
Brazil is projected to fall in ranking from eighth today to 13th, and Russia from the number 10 spot to 14th. Historical powers Italy and Spain, meanwhile, decline from the top 15 to 25th and 28th, respectively.
Indonesia could become the 12th largest economy globally, while Nigeria -- currently 28th -- is projected to crack the top 10.
"By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States the dominant powers," said Richard Horton, describing the study as outlining "radical shifts in geopolitical power."
Until now, the United Nations -- which forecasts 8.5, 9.7 and 10.9 billion people in 2030, 2050 and 2100, respectively -- has virtually had a monopoly in projecting global population.
The difference between the UN and IHME figures hinges crucially on fertility rates. The so-called "replacement rate" for a stable population is 2.1 births per woman.
UN calculations assume that countries with low fertility today will see those rates increase, on average, to about 1.8 children per woman over time, said Murray.
"Our analysis suggests that as women become more educated and have access to reproductive health services, they choose to have less than 1.5 children on average," he explained by email.
"Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world's population."
Founded in 2007 and supported by the Bill and & Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME had become a global reference for health statistics, especially its annual Global Burden of Disease reports.

[727Sky]

https://sputniknews.com/world/2020071510...ms-report/

[/url]Global Population Set to Shrink Dramatically, Prompting ‘Economic Power Shift’, Claims Report
© Sputnik /
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07:20 GMT 15.07.2020Get short URL
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The new research emphasised the importance of population forecasts as a “planning and risk management tool” for governments, businesses, and individuals to chart their long-term future with a better understanding of potentially unfolding scenarios and their geopolitical impacts.
Shifts in economic power will be triggered by a decrease of the global population after the middle of this century, claims [url=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext]a new report in the medical journal The Lancet.
Data provided in the forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study suggests that there will be around 9.7 billion people on the planet by 2064, but that the number will decrease to 8.8 billion by the year 2100, amid a slump in global fertility rates due to enhanced use of modern contraceptive methods and more widespread education among women.
23 countries, including Japan, Spain and Italy, are forecast to witness a decline of their population by more than half, according to the research.
China, along with another 34 countries, will see a population drop of more than 25 percent.

PTI News (Decline in fertility will see global population shrink, triggering radical shifts in economic power - report) has been published on PTI News - https://t.co/SUoauWrafa pic.twitter.com/GaaC5u5Vy4
— SiasatToday (@SiasatToday) July 15, 2020

The trend will not apply to sub-Saharan Africa, which is predicted as seeing close to three-fold population growth due to falling death rates and a growing number of women reaching child-bearing age.
In population growth, south and southeast Asia will concede their current positions as the most populated regions, with the nations of Africa predicted to take the lead.

© Photo : Pixabay
Map of the world
Niger's population is set to grow by 765 percent by 2100, Chad's will grow by 710 percent, South Sudan's by 594 percent and Mali's by 321 percent.
North America is set to overtake the region comprising Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, as the population of the latter region will be the lowest.
The most marked population drop is believed to be expected in Latvia (78 percent), and El Salvador (77 percent).
Despite a fall in population of around 300 million people, India, which currently boasts the world’s second-largest population, will reach the number one spot within a decade and remain there in the year 2100.

© AFP 2020 / PUNIT PARANJPE
High-rise buildings are seen dotting the skyline of the Indian city of Mumbai on July 15, 2015
China will only rank third in 2100, with its population predicted to dwindle by over 25 percent.
Nigeria, which currently has the seventh-highest population, will shoot up to second place by 2100.
Immigration Policies
As for age distribution across the globe, in stark contrast to today, when there are more young people than older people, the journal predicts that the population will become more middle-aged by 2100.
Over-80s are predicted to outnumber under-fives by a factor of two-to-one by 2100. This data marks a dramatic change in the working age population, set to impact countries such as China, Spain, the UK and Germany.
The shrinking size of their workforce may potentially stunt economic growth, bringing about geopolitical power shifts, as African and Arab countries surge ahead economically.

"Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multi-polar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers… This will truly be a new world, one we should be preparing for today," Dr. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, is quoted by Sky News as saying.

With a dramatically lower birth rate by 2100 in Western countries, such as the US, Australia and Canada, sustaining a working age population will possibly, writes the journal, require liberalising their stance on immigration.

"This important research charts a future we need to be planning for urgently. It offers a vision for radical shifts in geopolitical power, challenges myths about immigration, and underlines the importance of protecting and strengthening the sexual and reproductive rights of women. The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilisation,” said Dr. Richard Horton.

[MarioOnTheFly]

The latest population projection (guess) says Africa will increase while others decline. I am not at all convinced Africa will meet the projections simply because of tribal, religious, warfare, and food availability.

Of course there is always war and or a major killer pandemic that can change everything for everyone.    

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/195170...rojections

By 2100, more than 20 countries -- including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland -- will see their populations decline by at least half.
PARIS: Earth will be home to 8.8 billion souls in 2100, 2 billion fewer than current UN projections, according to a major study published Wednesday that foresees new global power alignments shaped by declining fertility rates and greying populations.
By century's end, 183 of 195 countries -- barring an influx of immigrants -- will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in The Lancet.
More than 20 countries -- including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland -- will see their numbers diminish by at least half.
China's will fall nearly that much, from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years.
Sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, will triple in size to some3 billion people, with Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India's 1.1 billion.
"These forecasts suggest good news for the environment, with less stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions, as well as significant economic opportunity for parts of sub-Saharan Africa," lead author Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, told AFP.
"However, most countries outside of Africa will see shrinking workforces and inverting population pyramids, which will have profound negative consequences for the economy."
For high-income countries in this category, the best solutions for sustaining population levels and economic growth will be flexible immigration policies and social support for families who want children, the study concluded.
"However, in the face of declining population there is a very real danger that some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences," Murray cautioned.
866 million people over 80
"It is imperative that women's freedom and rights are at the top of every government's development agenda."
Social services and healthcare systems will need to be overhauled to accommodate much older populations.
As fertility falls and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under five is forecast to decline by more than 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, the study found.
At the other end of the spectrum, 2.37 billion people -- more than a quarter of the global population -- will be over 65 years old by then.
Those over 80 will balloon from about 140 million today to 866 million.
Sharp declines in the number and proportion of the working-age population will also pose huge challenges in many countries.
"Societies will struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers," noted Stein Emil Vollset, a professor at the IHME.
The number of people of working age in China, for example, will plummet from about 950 million today to just over 350 million by the end of the century -- a 62 percent drop.
The decline in India is projected to be less steep, from 762 to 578 million.
In Nigeria, by contrast, the active labour force will expand from 86 million today to more than 450 million in 2100.
These tectonic shifts will also reshuffle the pecking order in terms of economic clout, the researchers forecast.
A new multipolar world
By 2050, China's gross domestic product will overtake that of the United States, but fall back into second place by 2100, they predict.
India's GDP will rise to take the number three spot, while Japan, Germany, France and the UK will stay among the world's 10 largest economies.
Brazil is projected to fall in ranking from eighth today to 13th, and Russia from the number 10 spot to 14th. Historical powers Italy and Spain, meanwhile, decline from the top 15 to 25th and 28th, respectively.
Indonesia could become the 12th largest economy globally, while Nigeria -- currently 28th -- is projected to crack the top 10.
"By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States the dominant powers," said Richard Horton, describing the study as outlining "radical shifts in geopolitical power."
Until now, the United Nations -- which forecasts 8.5, 9.7 and 10.9 billion people in 2030, 2050 and 2100, respectively -- has virtually had a monopoly in projecting global population.
The difference between the UN and IHME figures hinges crucially on fertility rates. The so-called "replacement rate" for a stable population is 2.1 births per woman.
UN calculations assume that countries with low fertility today will see those rates increase, on average, to about 1.8 children per woman over time, said Murray.
"Our analysis suggests that as women become more educated and have access to reproductive health services, they choose to have less than 1.5 children on average," he explained by email.
"Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world's population."
Founded in 2007 and supported by the Bill and & Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME had become a global reference for health statistics, especially its annual Global Burden of Disease reports.

Love me some UN projections. It is amazing how often they are wrong and still held in high regard by many.

This organization makes me sick. 

"barring an influx of immigrants" - oh yeah. That's the road to salvation.

[F2d5thCav]

By century's end, 183 of 195 countries -- barring an influx of immigrants -- will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in The Lancet.

That is always their lead-in as to why the West should swamp itself with migrants from Africa and the Middle East.

Remember the ad campaigns of the late 60s and 70s about all of the people starving to death in those regions?   Apparently the case was overstated.  If I sound cold, it is because I am tired of the propaganda campaigns and shameless attempts at manipulation.

Cheers

[MarioOnTheFly]

 If I sound cold, it is because I am tired of the propaganda campaigns and shameless attempts at manipulation.

Cheers

ugh man...words are insufficient to explain it. These days when I'm perfectly aware how the manipulation is being done, noticing small snippets and keywords...it's unbelievable. And then I am further taken aback when I see how many people are blissfully unaware of it.

I dont hold high hopes for our society.

[F2d5thCav]

@"MarioOnTheFly" 

Indeed.  I expect the shepherd's dogs are being trained to identify and suppress unruly members of the herd like us.  We'll be dealt with to encourage the others to submit forever.

Cheers

[Snarl]

ugh man...words are insufficient to explain it. These days when I'm perfectly aware how the manipulation is being done, noticing small snippets and keywords...it's unbelievable. And then I am further taken aback when I see how many people are blissfully unaware of it.

I dont hold high hopes for our society.

Most people are simply unconcerned.  I point these things out to my wife.  She acknowledges, moves on ... forgets.  Her mindset is: people are always trying to manipulate one another ... that's the way it is.

Now my sister-in-law (whom I have never gotten along with the past 40 years), has opened her eyes.  So much so, she's got my brother excited.

I don't know what to say.  I prefer Nationalism.  Don't see the benefits of Globalism.  Fear what would happen during a transition to Communism.

[Ninurta]

The population likely WILL drop, but I don't see world order rearranging itself as they predict. It's just not going to be that rosy. For example, sub-saharan Africa cannot sustain the sort of economic or industrial growth they predict, and especially not Nigeria. They do not have sufficient social structure to sustain what is predicted. What is more likely to happen are lots more tribal wars and such, much hotter than they have been at any time since the 1960's. 3 times as many people competing for the same level of resources cannot go well with the tribal mindset in sub-saharan Africa. That's why one tribe runs through the villages of other tribes chopping off hands to begin with. No hands means their enemy tribesmen cannot reach for the limited resources they themselves want to control and use.

China is already trying to get ahead of the curve for a population decrease by attempting to "annex" ("claim what isn't theirs" is a more accurate description) bits and pieces of 21 of their closest friends and neighbor's turf.

India is already ahead of the curve for industrialization, but I have to wonder how that is going to play out with an increased population there, given the problems they already have with pollution from industrialization there.

I personally - and this is just one man's opinion - think that we will be more likely to see more wars and rumors of wars as different societies try to seize resources from their neighboring societies, who are unlikely to be willing to give up their own resources so easily.

Matter of fact, those wars may cause the population increase to be sharply less than the predictions given in that article. When you add a massive death toll to a sharp decrease in population replacement, the net result is nowhere near the population growth most models predict. I hear that arctic lemmings undergo such reversal every 7 years or so when their population exceeds the carrying capacity of their resources.

Humanity has already exceeded the carrying capacity of our planet. I don't see a continued unfettered population increase in the future as some do. The human population has already more than doubled from what it was when I was born, just in my lifetime. This lifeboat rockball we all live on is overdue for capsizing already.
.

[kdog]

I know, I know.  


But everytime I see projections into the future , I think of betelgeuse and a super nova going off and baking us in gamma rays....





Sorry for the interruption. I'm up past my bedtime.