The Future; are we ready ?

[727Sky]

The Future! Are 'We' Ready?

An interesting talk by the Head of Daimler Benz, a bit mind blowing to say the least! He predicted an interesting concept of what could lie ahead.

In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla (obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are……

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

AirBnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence:  Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.  This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs.  Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

So, if you study law, stop immediately.  There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses.  Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public.  Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.  You don't want to own a car anymore.  You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.  You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving.  Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that  We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.  We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km).  That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably go bankrupt.  Traditional car companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.

Auto Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper.  Their car insurance business model will slowly disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.  Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.  Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:  Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.   Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last.  Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.  Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents).  We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.  Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health innovations:  The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.  There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breath into it.

It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease.  It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.  Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing:  The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years.  In the same time, it became 100 times faster.  All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.  The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.  You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoes at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building.  By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself:  "In the future, do you think we will have that?", and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.  And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.  There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture:  There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water.  The first Petri dish that produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.  Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.  Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat  It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in.  By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying.   Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency .. Of the world!

Longevity:  Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.  Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year.  So, we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100.

Education:  The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.  By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone.  That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English.  And that could happen within half a year.

Are you ready?
Read Ray Kurzwell's theories regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI) -
Singularity. The future is already here!
Fascinating read

[Wallfire]

I dont think all these things are going to happen, humans will not stand that they are been pushed aside. The governments will have to slow the take over of AI to a much longer time period, if not then civil unrest and perhaps civil war because the people will blame all the refugees on taking the jobs that are left.

There will have to be a mass reduction in child birth as more people will survive sickness and live longer, Since there are many cultures and religions that will not accept this they will be seen as trouble makers and attacked. 

Since people will not have any extra money, they cant buy things so the firms go under, the rich upper class will die, capitalism and socialism will die and what will take there place ??. There will be no need for human Governments ( some humans lust for power will always be there so that wont happen ), humans will feel they have no power and again civil unrest.

The resources needed to build robots will eat into Earths resources much faster than our use of oil, so that will not work.
So the rich , the big industry's are just going to sit back and lose everything, people are just going to sit back and lose everything without blaming someone, politicians are going to give up there control and power ???.

People seem to forget that AI and robots have needs, need for power to make them work, need for resources to build them, and since AI is built to copy humans it will have something like capitalism, but with people working and AI ruling.

One other thing, if AI is taking all the jobs why do we need to educate people and why would we need to teach everyone English ? would there be no translator app? "Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English.  And that could happen within half a year."

[BIAD]

There's an inbuilt desire for humans to control other humans. Robotic substitutes just won't cut it
for the power-hungry Elite.

I've watched how the Saudis are spreading their oil-fed wealth into other enterprises around the
world and it may be that for some reason -whether it's to do with the oil running out or not, the
Sheiks are realising the world is leaving them behind through technology and want a good seat
on the train into the future.

But it could be that they just wish to slow it or they've accepted that if electricity is going to be
the key to power such machines, where does the electricity originate and how can they control
it?

Putting solar panels or wind farms to one side for now, creating an fast, efficient and cheap electric
force is where the Saudi regime will be looking. And so will everyone else!
If the source of the power is no longer under the ground you live on, the whole sack of global
control is up for grabs.

[727Sky]

Thanks for the replies... I would not bet the farm on the time frame stated but as a general trend I did find the email interesting and full of possibilities.

[Ninurta]

Neat ideas, but I have a few questions. Taxis are available NOW - if I don't avail myself of them now, why would I do it in this peculiar machine-controlled future? Even if I did, how would I pay for the ride in a future where the jobs have become scarce or non-existent?

Hospitals are chock full of nefarious machinery NOW, but doctors have not become obsolete. How would my phone developing an ability to make me bleed and scan my retinas suddenly make doctors and all of their very much more sophisticated machinery obsolete? While on that topic, machinery that makes me bleed has a short life span. The last one that did that, as well as it's operator, became utterly dismantled. Just because your phone can suddenly hold you down and take your blood, and scan your retina for good measure does not necessarily mean that people who can make use of whatever it discovers, and, you know, HEAL you, will suddenly become of no use. There seems to always be a use for folks that can heal other folks and mend their busted bits.

I would say "who in the hell would even BUY a phone that makes them bleed?", but the question is already answered by the droves of cattle and sheep who are actually paying premium prices to install CIA grade mechanical spies in their houses to keep tabs on them - Alexa, anyone? "Alexa" may be able to order a pizza for you, but I bet she draws the line if you order her to burst into flame.

No thanks. I'm content to live in my cave, scratch, grunt, and chuck sharp sticks at passing wildebeests. It's the Human Way.

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